{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38e85825-3678-4e04-93f9-a57c9085bf9e", "symbol": "GPTINFRA", "name": "GPT Infraprojects Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.305, "architecture_energy": 20.575, "architecture_maturity": 57.22, "architecture_confidence": 89.902, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.33, "rotation_up": 20.88, "upward_expansion": 53.72, "deceleration": 91.01, "rotation_down": 36.8, "downward_expansion": 19.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 117.395335, 119.958001, 118.571736, 116.514339 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 115.790001, "trend_reference": 113.837823, "distance_from_trend": 0.017149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 109.18909, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060454, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.298739, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137282, "excess_performance": 0.180991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045468, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060454, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042987, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137282, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.427924, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1014477, "relative_activity": 1.41579, "balance": 1.427924, "dry_up": 0.969918, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068071, "annualized_volatility": 0.402824, "from_high_reference": -0.129398, "from_low_reference": 0.213637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.837823, "fair_value_reference": 109.18909, "structural_low": 95.407469, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.049694, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.013367, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.360205, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.097487, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.038721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.748211, "worst_return": -0.148816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.129791, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.098308, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.025306, "worst_return": -0.229903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 116.139999, "volume": 576726, "typical_volume": 761415.0, "trend": 112.775909, "fair_value": 107.636198, "relative_strength": 5.394915, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.191607, "energy": 59.210974, "activity_lines": [ 123.226, 121.523052, 117.896761, 115.73521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.410004, "volume": 392342, "typical_volume": 735383.15, "trend": 113.043443, "fair_value": 108.154706, "relative_strength": 8.203816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.570417, "energy": 25.890794, "activity_lines": [ 120.554001, 120.905921, 118.093339, 115.969668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.150002, "volume": 796414, "typical_volume": 720941.0, "trend": 113.454147, "fair_value": 108.67771, "relative_strength": 8.030309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.640789, "energy": 20.140379, "activity_lines": [ 119.127335, 120.769819, 118.532164, 116.363639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.790001, "volume": 1014477, "typical_volume": 716544.95, "trend": 113.837823, "fair_value": 109.18909, "relative_strength": 4.298739, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.305025, "energy": 20.575098, "activity_lines": [ 117.395335, 119.958001, 118.571736, 116.514339 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }