{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38e9a57e-a1be-4b90-b2d0-77d4130a1558", "symbol": "CENTEL", "name": "Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.589, "architecture_energy": 57.496, "architecture_maturity": 23.096, "architecture_confidence": 74.988, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.48, "rotation_up": 67.98, "upward_expansion": 85.05, "deceleration": 50.86, "rotation_down": 15.58, "downward_expansion": 9.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.8, 37.245455, 35.551958, 34.864821 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.25, "trend_reference": 34.344862, "distance_from_trend": 0.113704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.331128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114149, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.06154, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086566, "excess_performance": -0.105759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231889, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010615, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112239, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20576500, "relative_activity": 1.063111, "balance": 1.09803, "dry_up": 1.019807, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05631, "annualized_volatility": 0.399549, "from_high_reference": -0.055556, "from_low_reference": 0.533976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.344862, "fair_value_reference": 34.331128, "structural_low": 28.602149, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.014936, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.010951, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.099237, "worst_return": -0.057471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043289, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.004522, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.147651, "worst_return": -0.157658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.120712, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.202797, "worst_return": -0.204545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.618197, "energy": 74.780712, "activity_lines": [ 36.45, 35.372727, 33.96354, 33.853046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.25, "volume": 16597200, "typical_volume": 22048860.0, "trend": 33.837699, "fair_value": 34.463063, "relative_strength": -0.135043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.884149, "energy": 80.053551, "activity_lines": [ 37.166667, 36.1, 34.413211, 34.151624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.25, "volume": 24474300, "typical_volume": 20872975.0, "trend": 33.970396, "fair_value": 34.41354, "relative_strength": -5.653182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.321521, "energy": 60.867458, "activity_lines": [ 36.933333, 36.331818, 34.677685, 34.307256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.5, "volume": 17305400, "typical_volume": 19672520.0, "trend": 34.13735, "fair_value": 34.379956, "relative_strength": 1.199623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.695761, "energy": 60.480995, "activity_lines": [ 37.45, 36.868182, 35.142144, 34.599488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.25, "volume": 20576500, "typical_volume": 19354980.0, "trend": 34.344862, "fair_value": 34.331128, "relative_strength": 1.06154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.589145, "energy": 57.496236, "activity_lines": [ 37.8, 37.245455, 35.551958, 34.864821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }