{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38ef6f98-e152-48ae-a505-5ca19bbd7011", "symbol": "600282", "name": "Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.275, "architecture_energy": 19.973, "architecture_maturity": 65.85, "architecture_confidence": 69.941, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.96, "rotation_up": 28.01, "upward_expansion": 18.64, "deceleration": 46.3, "rotation_down": 27.04, "downward_expansion": 57.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.861333, 4.802364, 4.882209, 5.009253 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 5.16447, "distance_from_trend": -0.0667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.317282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.376896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152051, "excess_performance": -0.108847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045688, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152051, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.896569, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225640428, "relative_activity": 1.431137, "balance": 0.896569, "dry_up": 1.327424, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064315, "annualized_volatility": 0.314546, "from_high_reference": -0.182885, "from_low_reference": 0.158731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.16447, "fair_value_reference": 4.317282, "structural_low": 4.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009836, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.015891, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.146857, "worst_return": -0.052419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086207, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.077663, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.21463, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.082118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.081218, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287257, "worst_return": -0.027518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024296, "active": false }, { "regime": 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51.118092, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 4.740182, 4.927394, 5.0622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.86, "volume": 245237746, "typical_volume": 167988503.9, "trend": 5.17544, "fair_value": 4.292407, "relative_strength": -0.290759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.208988, "energy": 37.611405, "activity_lines": [ 4.747333, 4.752545, 4.904519, 5.041523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.03, "volume": 186741260, "typical_volume": 166664813.0, "trend": 5.174755, "fair_value": 4.305406, "relative_strength": 2.622524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.631037, "energy": 22.891783, "activity_lines": [ 4.852667, 4.799091, 4.90162, 5.03214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 225640428, "typical_volume": 157665198.15, "trend": 5.16447, "fair_value": 4.317282, "relative_strength": -4.376896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.274988, "energy": 19.973095, "activity_lines": [ 4.861333, 4.802364, 4.882209, 5.009253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }