{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38f92686-8c2a-415f-896e-d56818b7c083", "symbol": "688511", "name": "Sichuan Tianwei Electronic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.224, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.976, "architecture_energy": 43.93, "architecture_maturity": 21.185, "architecture_confidence": 65.437, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.14, "rotation_up": 13.57, "upward_expansion": 8.34, "deceleration": 51.69, "rotation_down": 67.89, "downward_expansion": 74.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.166, 24.613272, 24.90216, 25.099812 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.07, "trend_reference": 25.862725, "distance_from_trend": -0.107983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.790887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165688, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.634971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.179737, "excess_performance": -0.136533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165688, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9010574, "relative_activity": 0.608469, "balance": 0.928426, "dry_up": 0.885193, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188823, "annualized_volatility": 0.889694, "from_high_reference": -0.290037, "from_low_reference": 0.395644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.862725, "fair_value_reference": 19.790887, "structural_low": 16.530001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.019494, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016021, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.562634, "worst_return": -0.311291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04709, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.076138, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.708988, "worst_return": -0.336752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012138, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05532, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.73474, "worst_return": -0.365062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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35.283444, "energy": 56.887199, "activity_lines": [ 29.342666, 27.468181, 25.905148, 26.067123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.379999, "volume": 15205585, "typical_volume": 13820710.75, "trend": 26.392553, "fair_value": 19.865854, "relative_strength": 21.358444, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.089329, "energy": 59.06848, "activity_lines": [ 30.065333, 28.268909, 26.353336, 26.338496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.1, "volume": 15403954, "typical_volume": 14193674.8, "trend": 26.34857, "fair_value": 19.845391, "relative_strength": -6.460291, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.610174, "energy": 12.424155, "activity_lines": [ 27.653333, 27.396727, 26.006924, 26.061557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.120001, "volume": 18902627, "typical_volume": 14652972.55, "trend": 26.259348, "fair_value": 19.818083, "relative_strength": -15.953021, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.283798, "energy": 25.231093, "activity_lines": [ 24.781333, 26.200909, 25.495688, 25.659714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.549999, "volume": 9116692, "typical_volume": 14823048.1, "trend": 26.039138, "fair_value": 19.790869, "relative_strength": -14.615632, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.465402, "energy": 39.035606, "activity_lines": [ 22.77, 25.120363, 25.059946, 25.291369 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.07, "volume": 9010574, "typical_volume": 14808594.5, "trend": 25.862725, "fair_value": 19.790887, "relative_strength": -6.634971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.975519, "energy": 43.929917, "activity_lines": [ 22.166, 24.613272, 24.90216, 25.099812 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }