{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38fca3ec-bc8d-4d6b-ac90-6add87567ad6", "symbol": "CBUS5S", "name": "UBS BBG US Liquid Corp 1-5 UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.047, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.225, "architecture_energy": 52.095, "architecture_maturity": 26.585, "architecture_confidence": 82.876, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 15.78, "upward_expansion": 7.96, "deceleration": 47.78, "rotation_down": 63.3, "downward_expansion": 81.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.0746, 13.092373, 13.118402, 13.145391 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.0925, "trend_reference": 13.188867, "distance_from_trend": -0.007307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.068731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.980406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017964, "excess_performance": -0.100848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004883, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008816, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017964, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.034969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23367, "relative_activity": 1.692654, "balance": 1.034969, "dry_up": 1.587601, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004116, "annualized_volatility": 0.020609, "from_high_reference": -0.023021, "from_low_reference": 0.006573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.188867, "fair_value_reference": 13.068731, "structural_low": 13.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.004189, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.009087, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.023108, "worst_return": -0.024443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.000913, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00883, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.035157, "worst_return": -0.045685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014708, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.015321, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.023314, "worst_return": -0.066004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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8221, "typical_volume": 15409.5, "trend": 13.2316, "fair_value": 13.055699, "relative_strength": -10.233752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.212479, "energy": 42.072016, "activity_lines": [ 13.1373, 13.142918, 13.164862, 13.195127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.127, "volume": 624, "typical_volume": 14520.9, "trend": 13.226283, "fair_value": 13.058817, "relative_strength": -11.664523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.941827, "energy": 48.01312, "activity_lines": [ 13.132767, 13.1381, 13.158193, 13.188378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.0915, "volume": 22578, "typical_volume": 14055.9, "trend": 13.219983, "fair_value": 13.060862, "relative_strength": -10.424519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.255977, "energy": 61.745166, "activity_lines": [ 13.118233, 13.128473, 13.149205, 13.179683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.1235, "volume": 26790, "typical_volume": 14640.35, "trend": 13.214017, "fair_value": 13.063228, "relative_strength": -10.57118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.429191, "energy": 41.724324, "activity_lines": [ 13.1185, 13.126118, 13.144467, 13.173458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.028, "volume": 24529, "typical_volume": 14164.6, "trend": 13.2045, "fair_value": 13.064881, "relative_strength": -10.791671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.776194, "energy": 66.539709, "activity_lines": [ 13.0878, 13.1074, 13.1317, 13.161457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0585, "volume": 12981, "typical_volume": 14258.85, "trend": 13.195517, "fair_value": 13.066881, "relative_strength": -10.352585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.172732, "energy": 71.376653, "activity_lines": [ 13.072333, 13.096127, 13.123081, 13.152038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.0925, "volume": 23367, "typical_volume": 13804.95, "trend": 13.188867, "fair_value": 13.068731, "relative_strength": -10.980406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.2246, "energy": 52.095347, "activity_lines": [ 13.0746, 13.092373, 13.118402, 13.145391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }