{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38fd5ff6-9e90-4bf0-9c84-a0c4b03b99d3", "symbol": "300478", "name": "Hangzhou Gaoxin Materials Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.454, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.336, "architecture_energy": 38.281, "architecture_maturity": 47.964, "architecture_confidence": 50.095, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.28, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 17.8, "deceleration": 68.08, "rotation_down": 65.89, "downward_expansion": 42.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.642667, 31.199273, 33.508619, 32.196193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.450001, "trend_reference": 30.464667, "distance_from_trend": -0.033306, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.550962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.779353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.045799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12276, "excess_performance": 0.11536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.779353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.480893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020458, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12276, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.868554, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25131375, "relative_activity": 1.293859, "balance": 0.868554, "dry_up": 1.271955, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187306, "annualized_volatility": 0.704493, "from_high_reference": -0.365985, "from_low_reference": 0.923579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.464667, "fair_value_reference": 16.550962, "structural_low": 21.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019825, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037447, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.437972, "worst_return": -0.398767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.24, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.226202, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.444043, "worst_return": 0.002865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042755, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031525, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.790614, "worst_return": -0.129335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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30.859667, "fair_value": 16.346923, "relative_strength": -0.164995, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.834139, "energy": 23.815873, "activity_lines": [ 31.392, 34.749272, 34.654904, 32.749054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.4, "volume": 33724715, "typical_volume": 18767761.0, "trend": 30.559666, "fair_value": 16.429167, "relative_strength": -14.02284, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.301813, "energy": 45.038921, "activity_lines": [ 28.025333, 32.271272, 33.788524, 32.267785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.450001, "volume": 25131375, "typical_volume": 19423580.0, "trend": 30.464667, "fair_value": 16.550962, "relative_strength": 2.045799, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.33624, "energy": 38.280668, "activity_lines": [ 27.642667, 31.199273, 33.508619, 32.196193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }