{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3900f9da-6e1e-436f-8a60-f81954041085", "symbol": "FARN", "name": "Faron Pharmaceuticals Oy", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.565, "architecture_energy": 48.365, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.248, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.94, "rotation_up": 29.34, "upward_expansion": 5.96, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 52.28, "downward_expansion": 81.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.412, 0.416382, 0.424505, 0.460749 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.614168, "distance_from_trend": -0.33243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.780365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.76971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -68.153835, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.755224, "excess_performance": -0.806459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.33243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.435612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.76971, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.681538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074511, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.755224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 844205, "relative_activity": 1.779716, "balance": 0.670493, "dry_up": 1.21615, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108837, "annualized_volatility": 1.605548, "from_high_reference": -0.829167, "from_low_reference": 0.078947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.614168, "fair_value_reference": 1.780365, "structural_low": 0.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.022989, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.024155, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 1.12766, "worst_return": -0.710145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.100154, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.107176, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.509804, "worst_return": -0.753846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010989, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002036, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.356863, "worst_return": -0.736986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.274194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.337041, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.446809, "worst_return": -0.639847, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.509804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.375375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.888298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.294798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18552, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.246377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.775342, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.9, "volume": 17431, "typical_volume": 49228.5, "trend": 2.9485, "fair_value": 2.994872, "relative_strength": 12.167489, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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1.814083, "relative_strength": -69.859679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.715098, "energy": 60.394833, "activity_lines": [ 0.410933, 0.421709, 0.4278, 0.496362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.42, "volume": 868492, "typical_volume": 464650.85, "trend": 0.665501, "fair_value": 1.796968, "relative_strength": -68.276389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.964107, "energy": 52.04686, "activity_lines": [ 0.413333, 0.42, 0.426548, 0.477233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 844205, "typical_volume": 474348.05, "trend": 0.614168, "fair_value": 1.780365, "relative_strength": -68.153835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.564526, "energy": 48.365233, "activity_lines": [ 0.412, 0.416382, 0.424505, 0.460749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }