{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3904934e-0145-4da8-8233-6ee472a24017", "symbol": "300267", "name": "Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.027, "architecture_energy": 62.141, "architecture_maturity": 19.241, "architecture_confidence": 93.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 15.9, "upward_expansion": 12.88, "deceleration": 41.16, "rotation_down": 63.37, "downward_expansion": 86.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.098, 3.178727, 3.472381, 3.621763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.24, "trend_reference": 3.769667, "distance_from_trend": -0.140508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.158846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.0969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151832, "excess_performance": -0.159232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.356182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171867203, "relative_activity": 0.618494, "balance": 0.670434, "dry_up": 0.716014, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118234, "annualized_volatility": 0.504002, "from_high_reference": -0.365949, "from_low_reference": 0.165468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.769667, "fair_value_reference": 3.158846, "structural_low": 2.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009772, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": 0.031956, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.310924, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.14377, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.017305, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.457983, "worst_return": -0.100719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06177, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.02683, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.436975, "worst_return": -0.09863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068493, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003166, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.420354, "worst_return": -0.317029, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091549, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.201681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.244224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.152334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028571, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 3.3, "volume": 65024179, "typical_volume": 58978030.55, "trend": 3.357648, "fair_value": 3.829826, "relative_strength": 1.334134, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.804621, "energy": 66.810215, "activity_lines": [ 3.334667, 3.507091, 3.748381, 3.81086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.15, "volume": 236867686, "typical_volume": 306287490.15, "trend": 3.815, "fair_value": 3.161667, "relative_strength": -17.096534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.475252, "energy": 60.668795, "activity_lines": [ 3.268667, 3.401818, 3.678381, 3.767183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 216265600, "typical_volume": 291228226.45, "trend": 3.793667, "fair_value": 3.159679, "relative_strength": -24.001651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.384156, "energy": 62.116565, "activity_lines": [ 3.132667, 3.269091, 3.588619, 3.70686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.01, "volume": 170863203, "typical_volume": 282441321.5, "trend": 3.775333, "fair_value": 3.15859, "relative_strength": -18.773156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.111482, "energy": 69.659832, "activity_lines": [ 3.069333, 3.190364, 3.516905, 3.656301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.24, "volume": 171867203, "typical_volume": 277880025.95, "trend": 3.769667, "fair_value": 3.158846, "relative_strength": -16.0969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.027006, "energy": 62.140702, "activity_lines": [ 3.098, 3.178727, 3.472381, 3.621763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }