{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39160769-fdb6-4f88-83b6-13b8d68e0bc2", "symbol": "BKNG", "name": "Booking Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.265, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.112, "architecture_energy": 75.834, "architecture_maturity": 30.993, "architecture_confidence": 67.949, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.87, "rotation_up": 75.54, "upward_expansion": 88.84, "deceleration": 45.14, "rotation_down": 9.3, "downward_expansion": 15.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.522, 187.305091, 179.22214, 176.916478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 214.42, "trend_reference": 176.854022, "distance_from_trend": 0.212412, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 172.855012, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240462, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.441574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.208497, "excess_performance": 0.021043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.212412, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044634, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240462, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208497, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.970223, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41081106, "relative_activity": 1.259643, "balance": 1.970223, "dry_up": 0.988304, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069752, "annualized_volatility": 0.387587, "from_high_reference": -0.067155, "from_low_reference": 0.431751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 176.854022, "fair_value_reference": 172.855012, "structural_low": 149.760722, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.014697, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.001182, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.077894, "worst_return": -0.152442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013088, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.08777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053507, "worst_return": -0.210252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020664, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.011801, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.240533, "worst_return": -0.129028, 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-4.976552, "energy": 18.576627, "activity_lines": [ 178.871333, 173.470904, 171.796846, 173.50514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 181.68, "volume": 30366223, "typical_volume": 27972797.3, "trend": 178.930766, "fair_value": 171.436922, "relative_strength": -15.757326, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.657371, "energy": 28.251922, "activity_lines": [ 180.689333, 175.705783, 172.771568, 173.611479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.46, "volume": 22631875, "typical_volume": 28974620.95, "trend": 177.627559, "fair_value": 171.818149, "relative_strength": -15.665219, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.758233, "energy": 28.236951, "activity_lines": [ 179.984667, 176.879404, 173.282843, 173.516591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 192.9, "volume": 34848195, "typical_volume": 30634635.1, "trend": 176.994188, "fair_value": 172.285568, "relative_strength": -8.215868, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.610282, "energy": 42.244731, "activity_lines": [ 184.048, 180.429037, 175.284106, 174.50191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 214.42, "volume": 41081106, "typical_volume": 32613289.0, "trend": 176.854022, "fair_value": 172.855012, "relative_strength": -2.441574, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.112097, "energy": 75.834034, "activity_lines": [ 194.522, 187.305091, 179.22214, 176.916478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }