{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39166bb1-163d-4b0e-8f19-b4cf61f2da37", "symbol": "EDNR", "name": "Edison S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.3, "architecture_energy": 42.802, "architecture_maturity": 92.104, "architecture_confidence": 85.631, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.62, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 10.69, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 49.44, "downward_expansion": 77.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.940133, 1.941236, 1.9856, 2.0306 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.93, "trend_reference": 2.10232, "distance_from_trend": -0.081967, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.755995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.176965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171408, "excess_performance": -0.3423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081967, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060188, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.379317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 274616, "relative_activity": 0.730532, "balance": 0.379317, "dry_up": 0.997129, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041331, "annualized_volatility": 0.179647, "from_high_reference": -0.239533, "from_low_reference": 0.06044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.10232, "fair_value_reference": 1.755995, "structural_low": 1.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013734, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049227, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.037537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.01387, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102886, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084034, "worst_return": -0.056293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.239496, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239496, "worst_return": 0.239496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.121342, "energy": 86.285313, "activity_lines": [ 1.9368, 1.966855, 2.030208, 2.080316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.896, "volume": 253672, "typical_volume": 406774.65, "trend": 2.137676, "fair_value": 1.741855, "relative_strength": -25.146446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.476505, "energy": 86.187668, "activity_lines": [ 1.919733, 1.948382, 2.013281, 2.063897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.998, "volume": 432052, "typical_volume": 390637.25, "trend": 2.127443, "fair_value": 1.746843, "relative_strength": -20.653973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.307727, "energy": 52.63139, "activity_lines": [ 1.942933, 1.952436, 2.007368, 2.054886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.936, "volume": 538993, "typical_volume": 379994.4, "trend": 2.114982, "fair_value": 1.751455, "relative_strength": -23.199406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.898798, "energy": 46.291716, "activity_lines": [ 1.942933, 1.946255, 1.996273, 2.042535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.93, "volume": 274616, "typical_volume": 375912.6, "trend": 2.10232, "fair_value": 1.755995, "relative_strength": -25.176965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.299666, "energy": 42.802211, "activity_lines": [ 1.940133, 1.941236, 1.9856, 2.0306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }