{ "ticker": { "uuid": "391c5856-d671-4bee-9f65-17f0acc761b9", "symbol": "002628", "name": "Chengdu Road & Bridge Engineering CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.08, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.238, "architecture_energy": 34.518, "architecture_maturity": 11.427, "architecture_confidence": 55.464, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.93, "rotation_up": 23.91, "upward_expansion": 16.61, "deceleration": 44.65, "rotation_down": 50.99, "downward_expansion": 51.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.700667, 4.798364, 5.001524, 5.051591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.92, "trend_reference": 5.009333, "distance_from_trend": -0.017833, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.954872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.139668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058065, "excess_performance": 0.050665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035271, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016472, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058065, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105367602, "relative_activity": 0.836952, "balance": 0.304536, "dry_up": 1.142358, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125078, "annualized_volatility": 0.549715, "from_high_reference": -0.239567, "from_low_reference": 0.24557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.009333, "fair_value_reference": 3.954872, "structural_low": 4.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.004018, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.000397, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.182099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025373, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.008637, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 1.452381, "worst_return": -0.227811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.076024, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021459, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.114286, "worst_return": -0.316568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055985, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056948, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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5.129613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.91, "volume": 243709013, "typical_volume": 146793776.3, "trend": 4.965667, "fair_value": 3.930351, "relative_strength": -0.155397, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.672138, "energy": 7.330633, "activity_lines": [ 5.012667, 5.016545, 5.172429, 5.127785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.36, "volume": 141455537, "typical_volume": 131085125.0, "trend": 4.973, "fair_value": 3.937418, "relative_strength": -11.088016, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.596373, "energy": 17.003736, "activity_lines": [ 4.811333, 4.879091, 5.089667, 5.08871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.46, "volume": 84733934, "typical_volume": 126995185.0, "trend": 4.982333, "fair_value": 3.944872, "relative_strength": -7.057974, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.682909, "energy": 34.041754, "activity_lines": [ 4.680667, 4.786182, 5.021952, 5.055613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.92, "volume": 105367602, "typical_volume": 125894464.9, "trend": 5.009333, "fair_value": 3.954872, "relative_strength": -2.139668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.23776, "energy": 34.518252, "activity_lines": [ 4.700667, 4.798364, 5.001524, 5.051591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }