{ "ticker": { "uuid": "391d146c-a713-4e79-a126-fba709d2d717", "symbol": "900943", "name": "Shanghai Kai Kai Industry Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.354, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.877, "architecture_energy": 11.356, "architecture_maturity": 33.98, "architecture_confidence": 50.101, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.18, "rotation_up": 35.18, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 14.89, "downward_expansion": 54.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4116, 0.404986, 0.405664, 0.413812 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.44, "trend_reference": 0.429371, "distance_from_trend": 0.024756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.469634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0631, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.6697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061834, "excess_performance": -0.01863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079065, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175073, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.786467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3763313, "relative_activity": 6.757324, "balance": 1.786467, "dry_up": 2.766912, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033842, "annualized_volatility": 0.192266, "from_high_reference": -0.19708, "from_low_reference": 0.157895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.429371, "fair_value_reference": 0.469634, "structural_low": 0.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018331, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.038185, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.106904, "worst_return": -0.073169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020952, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.072169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28717, "worst_return": -0.118198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.086675, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.218262, "worst_return": -0.140712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014141, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040742, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022514, "active": false }, { 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0.404041, 0.415361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.401, "volume": 1003601, "typical_volume": 383387.95, "trend": 0.430904, "fair_value": 0.469932, "relative_strength": -12.096187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.534305, "energy": 37.438474, "activity_lines": [ 0.397852, 0.396879, 0.402926, 0.413225 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.44, "volume": 3763313, "typical_volume": 556923.6, "trend": 0.429371, "fair_value": 0.469634, "relative_strength": -5.6697, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.877177, "energy": 11.355551, "activity_lines": [ 0.4116, 0.404986, 0.405664, 0.413812 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }