{ "ticker": { "uuid": "391e6d4b-ac64-4007-b40b-51f32076f47e", "symbol": "301198", "name": "Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.339, "architecture_energy": 77.402, "architecture_maturity": 17.348, "architecture_confidence": 85.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.63, "rotation_up": 9.87, "upward_expansion": 18.05, "deceleration": 38.16, "rotation_down": 76.48, "downward_expansion": 93.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.178, 11.882727, 13.734524, 14.271075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.24, "trend_reference": 14.691333, "distance_from_trend": -0.166856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.556863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059111, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.02883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141655, "excess_performance": -0.149055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166856, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059111, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.471434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273674, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21631020, "relative_activity": 1.074904, "balance": 0.446845, "dry_up": 1.305531, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140083, "annualized_volatility": 0.583978, "from_high_reference": -0.370694, "from_low_reference": 0.405281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.691333, "fair_value_reference": 11.556863, "structural_low": 8.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.023369, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.020398, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.275949, "worst_return": -0.215315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091306, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017696, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.190763, "worst_return": -0.258306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032179, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052429, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.28012, "worst_return": -0.344887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 14.815667, "fair_value": 11.666157, "relative_strength": -19.716069, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.230626, "energy": 64.429377, "activity_lines": [ 13.0, 14.471636, 15.325428, 15.259677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.55, "volume": 20325071, "typical_volume": 20386180.6, "trend": 14.787333, "fair_value": 11.637805, "relative_strength": -22.14912, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.65891, "energy": 75.965826, "activity_lines": [ 12.057333, 13.548909, 14.851809, 14.984473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.36, "volume": 34838226, "typical_volume": 20129492.65, "trend": 14.738333, "fair_value": 11.608298, "relative_strength": -23.478543, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.41737, "energy": 87.44056, "activity_lines": [ 11.304, 12.727636, 14.389095, 14.698839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.57, "volume": 28294021, "typical_volume": 20190792.25, "trend": 14.702, "fair_value": 11.580705, "relative_strength": -20.288524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.379607, "energy": 87.844702, "activity_lines": [ 10.88, 12.082727, 13.971048, 14.429914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.24, "volume": 21631020, "typical_volume": 20123680.8, "trend": 14.691333, "fair_value": 11.556863, "relative_strength": -12.02883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.339238, "energy": 77.402055, "activity_lines": [ 11.178, 11.882727, 13.734524, 14.271075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }