{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39287803-795f-49ab-ac02-5a5ab2a487e0", "symbol": "MXI", "name": "MaxiPARTS Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.207, "architecture_energy": 26.872, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.343, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.35, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 22.36, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 24.88, "downward_expansion": 58.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.499, 1.459182, 1.509976, 1.610645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.495, "trend_reference": 1.75427, "distance_from_trend": -0.147794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.052117, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.271484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.720267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296157, "excess_performance": -0.359863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136737, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.271484, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.287203, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.155133, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318796, "relative_activity": 2.778248, "balance": 1.155133, "dry_up": 2.269065, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075122, "annualized_volatility": 0.324065, "from_high_reference": -0.412562, "from_low_reference": 0.107407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.75427, "fair_value_reference": 2.052117, "structural_low": 1.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.007502, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.005749, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.128683, "worst_return": -0.184492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007937, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046104, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.133005, "worst_return": -0.225191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.122137, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.107293, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.363049, "worst_return": -0.300252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.19171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094118, 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1.846467, "fair_value": 2.078256, "relative_strength": -31.311729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.292282, "energy": 65.990824, "activity_lines": [ 1.393167, 1.431909, 1.574048, 1.692471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.41, "volume": 52680, "typical_volume": 250292.35, "trend": 1.82136, "fair_value": 2.071713, "relative_strength": -30.698215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.977761, "energy": 63.27909, "activity_lines": [ 1.400333, 1.420045, 1.546583, 1.664312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 409178, "typical_volume": 268117.85, "trend": 1.797622, "fair_value": 2.065219, "relative_strength": -25.540642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.687534, "energy": 50.996133, "activity_lines": [ 1.435833, 1.429273, 1.530286, 1.643579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.57, "volume": 260821, "typical_volume": 99906.5, "trend": 1.777848, "fair_value": 2.058644, "relative_strength": -23.316731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.931588, "energy": 34.38052, "activity_lines": [ 1.485667, 1.451682, 1.522702, 1.628894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.495, "volume": 318796, "typical_volume": 114747.15, "trend": 1.75427, "fair_value": 2.052117, "relative_strength": -28.720267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.206608, "energy": 26.872159, "activity_lines": [ 1.499, 1.459182, 1.509976, 1.610645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }