{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39344c77-31ad-459f-bdaf-7a8775f2d250", "symbol": "603619", "name": "Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group Corp.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.561, "architecture_energy": 45.535, "architecture_maturity": 82.109, "architecture_confidence": 94.623, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.24, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 20.69, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 41.24, "downward_expansion": 70.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.478, 20.987455, 23.607584, 26.224162 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.5, "trend_reference": 28.621009, "distance_from_trend": -0.213864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.416366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.14116, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351398, "excess_performance": -0.308194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196278848, "relative_activity": 1.605829, "balance": 0.414752, "dry_up": 1.954323, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124581, "annualized_volatility": 0.598625, "from_high_reference": -0.533001, "from_low_reference": 0.27551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.621009, "fair_value_reference": 21.416366, "structural_low": 17.639999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005847, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.002142, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.276262, "worst_return": -0.138241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.111308, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023005, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.316332, "worst_return": -0.072504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047654, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084392, "worst_return": -0.018835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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237598939, "typical_volume": 121413151.55, "trend": 28.677342, "fair_value": 21.371593, "relative_strength": -6.16785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.964244, "energy": 67.464501, "activity_lines": [ 19.927333, 20.976063, 24.649539, 27.067819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.74, "volume": 280520838, "typical_volume": 121982947.75, "trend": 28.639342, "fair_value": 21.388522, "relative_strength": -10.636312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.29027, "energy": 57.821931, "activity_lines": [ 20.676, 20.85416, 24.057252, 26.620249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.5, "volume": 196278848, "typical_volume": 122229009.15, "trend": 28.621009, "fair_value": 21.416366, "relative_strength": -10.14116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.560899, "energy": 45.535227, "activity_lines": [ 21.478, 20.987455, 23.607584, 26.224162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }