{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3936823a-affb-4421-964f-c7c4c4e8f68e", "symbol": "Z59", "name": "Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.291, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.403, "architecture_energy": 2.94, "architecture_maturity": 29.496, "architecture_confidence": 54.915, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.54, "rotation_up": 29.77, "upward_expansion": 15.86, "deceleration": 50.11, "rotation_down": 36.89, "downward_expansion": 28.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0794, 0.0794, 0.079581, 0.079247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.0793, "distance_from_trend": 0.008827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.07991, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.703114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012658, "excess_performance": -0.142177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015886, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012658, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3122000, "relative_activity": 0.573065, "balance": 0.494542, "dry_up": 0.695851, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032692, "annualized_volatility": 0.21127, "from_high_reference": -0.139785, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0793, "fair_value_reference": 0.07991, "structural_low": 0.072, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.012346, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03747, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.206349, "worst_return": -0.202532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.036145, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.066837, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051397, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.165008, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.101449, "worst_return": -0.494505, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.12766, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.369587, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.10989, "worst_return": -0.413043, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.329787, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078652, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064935, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.091, "volume": 12884700, "typical_volume": 6150040.0, "trend": 0.101833, "fair_value": 0.15016, "relative_strength": -10.476106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.632631, "energy": 5.536934, "activity_lines": [ 0.0794, 0.079836, 0.079367, 0.07934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.078, "volume": 3189300, "typical_volume": 6003805.0, "trend": 0.079633, "fair_value": 0.08034, "relative_strength": -19.130398, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.62987, "energy": 20.409284, "activity_lines": [ 0.078867, 0.079473, 0.07931, 0.079222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 3797100, "typical_volume": 5667670.0, "trend": 0.0796, "fair_value": 0.080218, "relative_strength": -17.52637, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.864168, "energy": 10.250706, "activity_lines": [ 0.079133, 0.079509, 0.079452, 0.079245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.079, "volume": 5055300, "typical_volume": 5519110.0, "trend": 0.079367, "fair_value": 0.080045, "relative_strength": -18.405025, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.590794, "energy": 10.603917, "activity_lines": [ 0.079133, 0.079364, 0.079476, 0.079206 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 3122000, "typical_volume": 5447900.0, "trend": 0.0793, "fair_value": 0.07991, "relative_strength": -17.703114, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.403027, "energy": 2.939936, "activity_lines": [ 0.0794, 0.0794, 0.079581, 0.079247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }