{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39382494-7927-4ae6-9bf8-c335385de578", "symbol": "300473", "name": "Fuxin Dare Automotive Parts Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.909, "architecture_energy": 84.679, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.97, "rotation_up": 8.5, "upward_expansion": 21.15, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 76.45, "downward_expansion": 94.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.822, 24.491455, 28.050476, 29.731097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.32, "trend_reference": 31.533, "distance_from_trend": -0.29217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.205705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.645529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345455, "excess_performance": -0.352854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.29217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.552545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.306455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20438200, "relative_activity": 0.959038, "balance": 0.883527, "dry_up": 1.089463, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170975, "annualized_volatility": 0.579015, "from_high_reference": -0.430322, "from_low_reference": 0.118237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.533, "fair_value_reference": 24.205705, "structural_low": 19.959999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.044218, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.055157, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.278722, "worst_return": -0.157444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.134238, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.109517, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.316843, "worst_return": -0.136548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022113, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217723, "worst_return": -0.052444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -28.196078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.361931, "energy": 80.942523, "activity_lines": [ 26.642667, 28.950182, 30.969952, 31.83114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.52, "volume": 26506383, "typical_volume": 22260480.9, "trend": 32.059333, "fair_value": 24.162692, "relative_strength": -35.116045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.733569, "energy": 87.612798, "activity_lines": [ 24.177334, 27.101818, 29.860095, 31.070516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.76, "volume": 21925798, "typical_volume": 21599965.8, "trend": 31.781667, "fair_value": 24.175256, "relative_strength": -32.70195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.89269, "energy": 89.48516, "activity_lines": [ 22.434667, 25.502182, 28.844238, 30.341527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.32, "volume": 20438200, "typical_volume": 21311155.8, "trend": 31.533, "fair_value": 24.205705, "relative_strength": -30.645529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.908714, "energy": 84.679388, "activity_lines": [ 21.822, 24.491455, 28.050476, 29.731097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }