{ "ticker": { "uuid": "394293a9-9ffa-4b43-b5ca-ff65bf53269d", "symbol": "LMG", "name": "Lucisano Media Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.489, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.61, "architecture_energy": 32.183, "architecture_maturity": 38.715, "architecture_confidence": 77.817, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.14, "rotation_up": 20.61, "upward_expansion": 18.23, "deceleration": 47.93, "rotation_down": 40.66, "downward_expansion": 61.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.035333, 1.037455, 1.03393, 1.04455 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 1.055837, "distance_from_trend": -0.033941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.998214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021825, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.197547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020919, "excess_performance": -0.149973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014163, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021825, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040853, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5600, "relative_activity": 0.322953, "balance": 0.852535, "dry_up": 0.224913, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02178, "annualized_volatility": 0.355018, "from_high_reference": -0.274796, "from_low_reference": 0.124649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.055837, "fair_value_reference": 0.998214, "structural_low": 0.9603, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.014167, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.132353, "worst_return": -0.161249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019441, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037595, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.147826, "worst_return": -0.180605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023438, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.04731, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.252174, "worst_return": -0.167802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010571, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.083018, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.275362, "worst_return": -0.284956, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063531, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.174757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0064, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017246, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.060647, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13100.0, "trend": 1.130945, "fair_value": 1.120639, "relative_strength": -14.504366, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.552678, "energy": 60.266755, "activity_lines": [ 1.08222, 1.104773, 1.14029, 1.138008 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.069636, "volume": 10800, "typical_volume": 12300.0, "trend": 1.12898, "fair_value": 1.12127, "relative_strength": -14.598163, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.663188, "energy": 63.270446, "activity_lines": [ 1.072632, 1.094313, 1.132173, 1.134052 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1.060647, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 12420.0, "trend": 1.127006, "fair_value": 1.122069, "relative_strength": -16.067517, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.542114, "energy": 63.907964, "activity_lines": [ 1.064842, 1.084671, 1.123439, 1.129644 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 1.114578, "volume": 21200, "typical_volume": 12580.0, "trend": 1.126831, "fair_value": 1.123437, "relative_strength": -9.948287, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", 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"close": 1.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 41940.0, "trend": 1.04707, "fair_value": 1.000425, "relative_strength": -15.087257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.085265, "energy": 11.319371, "activity_lines": [ 1.032, 1.027764, 1.037952, 1.047699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.07, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 35680.0, "trend": 1.049757, "fair_value": 1.000082, "relative_strength": -11.2486, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.008895, "energy": 10.217478, "activity_lines": [ 1.044, 1.036535, 1.038776, 1.049178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.04, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 21780.0, "trend": 1.05209, "fair_value": 0.999431, "relative_strength": -12.312813, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.851902, "energy": 12.016875, "activity_lines": [ 1.044, 1.039091, 1.036912, 1.048549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18340.0, "trend": 1.054423, "fair_value": 0.99878, "relative_strength": -11.988569, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.783266, "energy": 14.422071, "activity_lines": [ 1.044, 1.040727, 1.036101, 1.047769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.04, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 17540.0, "trend": 1.055463, "fair_value": 0.998475, "relative_strength": -12.346737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.720028, "energy": 15.344562, "activity_lines": [ 1.043333, 1.041091, 1.035742, 1.046838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 5600, "typical_volume": 17340.0, "trend": 1.055837, "fair_value": 0.998214, "relative_strength": -16.197547, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.610016, "energy": 32.183157, "activity_lines": [ 1.035333, 1.037455, 1.03393, 1.04455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }