{ "ticker": { "uuid": "394477b7-264e-4802-ad30-b267f6e22f99", "symbol": "ESOY", "name": "WisdomTree Soybeans - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 78.293, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.27, "architecture_energy": 28.464, "architecture_maturity": 13.95, "architecture_confidence": 51.968, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.52, "rotation_up": 59.75, "upward_expansion": 67.13, "deceleration": 61.19, "rotation_down": 9.68, "downward_expansion": 10.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.371333, 9.275855, 9.2744, 9.291368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.166, "trend_reference": 9.240733, "distance_from_trend": -0.008087, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.277168, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011983, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.24975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032207, "excess_performance": -0.138685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007322, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011983, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025811, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.471096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 227, "relative_activity": 0.151202, "balance": 3.471096, "dry_up": 1.087224, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027107, "annualized_volatility": 0.182516, "from_high_reference": -0.075076, "from_low_reference": 0.10754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.240733, "fair_value_reference": 9.277168, "structural_low": 8.884, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000473, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019679, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.133427, "worst_return": -0.052568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02565, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.060106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198567, "worst_return": -0.154688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025934, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.144771, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07719, "worst_return": -0.150905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 9.091, 9.118982, 9.238129, 9.229787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.419, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 2344.3, "trend": 9.163933, "fair_value": 9.313521, "relative_strength": -8.385403, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.043287, "energy": 12.487194, "activity_lines": [ 9.219867, 9.1592, 9.247738, 9.247854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.786, "volume": 3852, "typical_volume": 2435.45, "trend": 9.2021, "fair_value": 9.301303, "relative_strength": -4.485448, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.815209, "energy": 47.153767, "activity_lines": [ 9.4354, 9.268455, 9.291724, 9.287987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.313, "volume": 2444, "typical_volume": 1970.1, "trend": 9.2245, "fair_value": 9.288604, "relative_strength": -9.499495, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.429274, "energy": 35.89586, "activity_lines": [ 9.436533, 9.283709, 9.288795, 9.295142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.166, "volume": 227, "typical_volume": 1501.3, "trend": 9.240733, "fair_value": 9.277168, "relative_strength": -13.24975, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.269882, "energy": 28.464288, "activity_lines": [ 9.371333, 9.275855, 9.2744, 9.291368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }