{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39469cbb-a67b-4225-98a1-182dfb553780", "symbol": "APM", "name": "ad pepper media International N.V.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.231, "architecture_energy": 16.74, "architecture_maturity": 32.713, "architecture_confidence": 65.439, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.34, "rotation_up": 23.69, "upward_expansion": 17.3, "deceleration": 40.38, "rotation_down": 30.6, "downward_expansion": 55.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.656, 2.645091, 2.659048, 2.684043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.68, "trend_reference": 2.723333, "distance_from_trend": -0.015912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.459808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.881387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.062937, "excess_performance": -0.127577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089516, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062937, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.120442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23129, "relative_activity": 1.327449, "balance": 2.120442, "dry_up": 0.812674, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034443, "annualized_volatility": 0.195343, "from_high_reference": -0.346341, "from_low_reference": 0.03876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.723333, "fair_value_reference": 2.459808, "structural_low": 2.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.024, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.025952, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.357576, "worst_return": -0.300847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.028563, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.062819, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.313131, "worst_return": -0.32493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070796, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.116946, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.435644, "worst_return": -0.521825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09886, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.275382, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.684211, "worst_return": -0.594276, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.033981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056995, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20603, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.229508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070513, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136691, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015152, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.52, "volume": 510, "typical_volume": 16864.15, "trend": 2.342667, "fair_value": 3.940962, "relative_strength": 9.712492, "stage": 1, "regime": 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2.456731, "relative_strength": -11.335908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.822699, "energy": 28.804792, "activity_lines": [ 2.637333, 2.639636, 2.667333, 2.698581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.62, "volume": 12464, "typical_volume": 17549.45, "trend": 2.728667, "fair_value": 2.457115, "relative_strength": -12.6046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.260774, "energy": 30.413035, "activity_lines": [ 2.632, 2.633818, 2.660857, 2.691441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.66, "volume": 21046, "typical_volume": 17152.05, "trend": 2.726, "fair_value": 2.458782, "relative_strength": -12.668671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.289664, "energy": 20.643307, "activity_lines": [ 2.641333, 2.636727, 2.658857, 2.687011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.68, "volume": 23129, "typical_volume": 17423.65, "trend": 2.723333, "fair_value": 2.459808, "relative_strength": -13.881387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.230855, "energy": 16.740268, "activity_lines": [ 2.656, 2.645091, 2.659048, 2.684043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }