{ "ticker": { "uuid": "395386b0-e111-470f-be4f-bc15561a365e", "symbol": "UB74", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-3 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.395, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.642, "architecture_energy": 15.959, "architecture_maturity": 23.696, "architecture_confidence": 72.557, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.69, "rotation_up": 20.79, "upward_expansion": 53.01, "deceleration": 89.88, "rotation_down": 39.74, "downward_expansion": 23.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1817.916667, 1822.681818, 1819.515476, 1818.301639 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1814.25, "trend_reference": 1817.051733, "distance_from_trend": -0.001542, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1879.533847, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.942187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001074, "excess_performance": -0.052309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001542, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034734, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016433, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.59334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 867, "relative_activity": 0.317391, "balance": 0.59334, "dry_up": 1.070141, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008554, "annualized_volatility": 0.060941, "from_high_reference": -0.259259, "from_low_reference": 0.02125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1817.051733, "fair_value_reference": 1879.533847, "structural_low": 1776.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.003545, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.007781, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.041472, "worst_return": -0.018583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003288, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044457, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.089498, "worst_return": -0.019815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002248, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 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-0.004348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022511, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01469, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018247, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.644938, "energy": 31.080817, "activity_lines": [ 1825.75, 1825.236364, 1819.252381, 1818.109371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1828.5, "volume": 2165, "typical_volume": 2820.05, "trend": 1818.3066, "fair_value": 1880.326905, "relative_strength": -7.457841, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.729753, "energy": 19.251341, "activity_lines": [ 1824.983333, 1826.172727, 1820.196429, 1818.781633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1814.5, "volume": 5196, "typical_volume": 2883.15, "trend": 1817.883301, "fair_value": 1879.962396, "relative_strength": -8.953197, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.204079, "energy": 17.631713, "activity_lines": [ 1820.383333, 1824.5, 1819.816667, 1818.536046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1814.25, "volume": 867, "typical_volume": 2731.65, "trend": 1817.051733, "fair_value": 1879.533847, "relative_strength": -8.942187, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.642058, "energy": 15.958977, "activity_lines": [ 1817.916667, 1822.681818, 1819.515476, 1818.301639 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }