{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3953fdf0-92ee-4b69-86e3-6a56f5dd50a8", "symbol": "GEEKAYWIRE", "name": "Geekay Wires Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.79, "architecture_energy": 48.217, "architecture_maturity": 33.358, "architecture_confidence": 77.642, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.42, "rotation_up": 10.93, "upward_expansion": 17.55, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 65.02, "downward_expansion": 76.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.096001, 23.865819, 24.342619, 24.317549 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.530001, "trend_reference": 24.812, "distance_from_trend": -0.091972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.638056, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.257702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195357, "excess_performance": -0.151648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416896, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202577, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195357, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.567902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471120, "relative_activity": 1.050322, "balance": 0.567902, "dry_up": 0.833344, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102667, "annualized_volatility": 0.545948, "from_high_reference": -0.440445, "from_low_reference": 0.21718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.812, "fair_value_reference": 38.638056, "structural_low": 18.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.032931, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.048574, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.23377, "worst_return": -0.171975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.079646, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.062443, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.142287, "worst_return": -0.269516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.114595, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.152737, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.12367, "worst_return": -0.452187, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005863, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": 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-15.37395, "energy": 7.823061, "activity_lines": [ 25.212, 24.904909, 24.683476, 25.036753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.18, "volume": 242653, "typical_volume": 515434.2, "trend": 26.035667, "fair_value": 38.736719, "relative_strength": -12.101721, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.462939, "energy": 13.020183, "activity_lines": [ 25.368667, 24.922545, 24.769571, 24.965806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.58, "volume": 168997, "typical_volume": 508421.8, "trend": 25.785333, "fair_value": 38.697796, "relative_strength": -17.487023, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.637632, "energy": 15.308294, "activity_lines": [ 24.898667, 24.650727, 24.708429, 24.807376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.790001, "volume": 558278, "typical_volume": 504285.7, "trend": 25.51, "fair_value": 38.666204, "relative_strength": -14.227152, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.875231, "energy": 19.905214, "activity_lines": [ 24.4, 24.496909, 24.67381, 24.678645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.52, "volume": 296784, "typical_volume": 461457.3, "trend": 25.137, "fair_value": 38.644109, "relative_strength": -20.30007, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.33668, "energy": 38.415436, "activity_lines": [ 23.613334, 24.164909, 24.512143, 24.485742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.530001, "volume": 471120, "typical_volume": 448548.05, "trend": 24.812, "fair_value": 38.638056, "relative_strength": -20.257702, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.789737, "energy": 48.216542, "activity_lines": [ 23.096001, 23.865819, 24.342619, 24.317549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }