{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3959bd29-d4f2-4a94-aacb-6a098c5338f6", "symbol": "MKZR", "name": "MacKenzie Realty Capital, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 116, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "stage_color": "red", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "stage_age_weeks": 37, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_score": 13.805, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 78.346, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_color": "red", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -93.492, "architecture_energy": 92.647, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_age_weeks": 37, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.492, "energy": 92.647, "maturity": 100.0, "confidence": 96, "confirmation": 99.946, "age_weeks": 37, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Activity Lines are bearishly ordered below the 30-week Trend Line, their slopes are negative and price is accepted below the fan. Repair requires contraction and an upward fast/slow rotation\u2014not merely one strong week." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 23.72, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 38.22, "rotation_down": 73.64, "downward_expansion": 98.14 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 1.441333, "10": 1.625025, "20": 2.037615, "30": 2.451746 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": -1.286195, "10": -1.377645, "20": -1.580939, "30": -1.496076 }, "bullish_order": 0.0, "bearish_order": 1.0, "fan_width_atr": 3.292484, "fan_width_change_4": 0.511795, "fan_width_percentile": 1.0, "fast_slow_gap_atr": -2.318464, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.206587, "price_acceptance": -1.0, "current_fan_distance_atr": -1.340352, "accepted_above": 0.0, "accepted_below": 1.0, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The primary weekly trend is declining.", "body": "Price below a falling 30-week average with weak relative performance defines the defensive state. Bottom-fishing evidence is kept separate from a confirmed Stage 1 repair.", "phase": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 14/100." }, "latest_close": 1.03, "sma_30": 3.0416, "distance_from_sma_30": -0.661362, "sma_30_slope": -0.216031, "fair_value": 15.072832, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.931665, "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.09904, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -75.647389, "mansfield_rs_change_13": -22.881499, "range_position_52": 0.032468, "returns": { "13": -0.632143, "26": -0.761021, "52": -0.794575 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.846342, "52": -1.00941 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 54.41, "2": 0.0, "3": 15.59, "4": 100.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": false, "value": -0.661362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.216031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.132979, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.161746, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.189487, "worst_return": -0.421348, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.216968, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.283828, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.062802, "worst_return": -0.371134, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.410628, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.548506, "stage_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.410628, "worst_return": -0.410628, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "stage_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "stage_ledger": [ { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 37, "return": -0.751208, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.132979, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.161746, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.189487, "worst_return": -0.421348, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.216968, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.283828, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.062802, "worst_return": -0.371134, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.410628, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.548506, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.410628, "worst_return": -0.410628, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 37, "return": -0.751208, "active": true } ] } }