{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3959c8b5-922c-4473-a7c5-055fdb6a3ea0", "symbol": "OGD", "name": "Orbit Garant Drilling Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.723, "architecture_energy": 38.84, "architecture_maturity": 70.575, "architecture_confidence": 63.362, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.27, "rotation_up": 26.57, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 40.72, "downward_expansion": 67.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.301333, 1.291455, 1.402238, 1.529656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.4, "trend_reference": 1.661333, "distance_from_trend": -0.157303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.094808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.001239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186047, "excess_performance": -0.306468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.491354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22834, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186047, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116900, "relative_activity": 1.405048, "balance": 0.402988, "dry_up": 0.672476, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125275, "annualized_volatility": 0.578816, "from_high_reference": -0.435484, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.661333, "fair_value_reference": 1.094808, "structural_low": 1.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.057692, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.020144, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.382979, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.02418, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.66, "worst_return": -0.292929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.113181, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.3, "worst_return": -0.292929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098361, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.364, 1.452, 1.629238, 1.687269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.23, "volume": 13300, "typical_volume": 122320.0, "trend": 1.682667, "fair_value": 1.075513, "relative_strength": -32.991192, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.85785, "energy": 87.694194, "activity_lines": [ 1.307333, 1.395091, 1.576667, 1.657892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.21, "volume": 59600, "typical_volume": 110840.0, "trend": 1.675667, "fair_value": 1.07891, "relative_strength": -33.549938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.117089, "energy": 88.866071, "activity_lines": [ 1.259333, 1.344364, 1.525762, 1.627398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.27, "volume": 23700, "typical_volume": 102830.0, "trend": 1.674, "fair_value": 1.082885, "relative_strength": -29.580557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.867418, "energy": 84.184987, "activity_lines": [ 1.248667, 1.315455, 1.485381, 1.601226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.23, "volume": 30500, "typical_volume": 95140.0, "trend": 1.67, "fair_value": 1.086538, "relative_strength": -31.340426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.087605, "energy": 76.883987, "activity_lines": [ 1.236667, 1.289818, 1.446619, 1.572581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.27, "volume": 52700, "typical_volume": 89820.0, "trend": 1.665333, "fair_value": 1.090256, "relative_strength": -28.289951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.067379, "energy": 56.607372, "activity_lines": [ 1.248667, 1.277091, 1.416524, 1.546774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.4, "volume": 116900, "typical_volume": 83200.0, "trend": 1.661333, "fair_value": 1.094808, "relative_strength": -23.001239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.723304, "energy": 38.840123, "activity_lines": [ 1.301333, 1.291455, 1.402238, 1.529656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }