{ "ticker": { "uuid": "395b21c7-a8b1-4543-8442-2c72831d99e7", "symbol": "XMI", "name": "iShares MSCI Min Vol EAFE Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.197, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.779, "architecture_energy": 90.865, "architecture_maturity": 11.921, "architecture_confidence": 61.713, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.67, "rotation_up": 86.93, "upward_expansion": 98.52, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.27, "downward_expansion": 20.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.271334, 48.663862, 48.014036, 47.825865 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 49.91, "trend_reference": 47.577999, "distance_from_trend": 0.049014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.031435, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24677, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.412283, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049632, "excess_performance": -0.070789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24677, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041082, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038855, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.269697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3300, "relative_activity": 0.239391, "balance": 1.269697, "dry_up": 0.288357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014934, "annualized_volatility": 0.129903, "from_high_reference": -0.001001, "from_low_reference": 0.145692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.577999, "fair_value_reference": 40.031435, "structural_low": 46.08409, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.010969, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.011173, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.075689, "worst_return": -0.046598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02862, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.015353, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.102253, "worst_return": -0.018177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05394, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031574, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.12273, "worst_return": 0.009225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 47.076641, "fair_value": 39.603562, "relative_strength": -5.770959, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.333696, "energy": 55.487213, "activity_lines": [ 47.843439, 47.47077, 47.353749, 47.333701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.490002, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 15555.0, "trend": 47.189159, "fair_value": 39.705858, "relative_strength": -4.93118, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.324731, "energy": 68.176209, "activity_lines": [ 48.117348, 47.701337, 47.459607, 47.424886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.740002, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 15110.0, "trend": 47.310999, "fair_value": 39.808675, "relative_strength": -4.471329, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.780411, "energy": 78.009056, "activity_lines": [ 48.414001, 47.944896, 47.592607, 47.52494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.52, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 14410.0, "trend": 47.454666, "fair_value": 39.920036, "relative_strength": -2.309205, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.079738, "energy": 84.875349, "activity_lines": [ 48.854001, 48.289147, 47.791083, 47.667456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.91, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 13785.0, "trend": 47.577999, "fair_value": 40.031435, "relative_strength": -4.412283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.778524, "energy": 90.864698, "activity_lines": [ 49.271334, 48.663862, 48.014036, 47.825865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }