{ "ticker": { "uuid": "395ce49b-a49d-4682-aa3a-80f9b2d1f814", "symbol": "6244", "name": "Motech Industries Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.688, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.592, "architecture_energy": 56.595, "architecture_maturity": 9.821, "architecture_confidence": 87.398, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.35, "rotation_up": 11.56, "upward_expansion": 11.84, "deceleration": 38.87, "rotation_down": 66.93, "downward_expansion": 87.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.973964, 24.936134, 26.374152, 26.96116 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.200001, "trend_reference": 27.177595, "distance_from_trend": -0.072766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.823641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.219176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04926, "excess_performance": -0.490632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00383, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012444, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086957, "worst_return": -0.070052, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033126, "worst_return": -0.089723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041187, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.039337, "worst_return": -0.146819, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 19.858587, "activity_lines": [ 26.508983, 27.479456, 27.884351, 27.786542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.85, "volume": 15644354, "typical_volume": 49719798.25, "trend": 27.000815, "fair_value": 23.93359, "relative_strength": -19.146508, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.071994, "energy": 37.3805, "activity_lines": [ 25.867581, 26.908984, 27.548827, 27.660154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.9, "volume": 21864041, "typical_volume": 44453056.0, "trend": 26.979904, "fair_value": 23.8865, "relative_strength": -27.31385, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.283831, "energy": 53.859578, "activity_lines": [ 24.472574, 25.848526, 26.970309, 27.331069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.1, "volume": 15029804, "typical_volume": 39059420.85, "trend": 27.053695, "fair_value": 23.844937, "relative_strength": -24.712824, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.362052, "energy": 54.820752, "activity_lines": [ 23.741513, 25.139718, 26.554295, 27.080753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.200001, "volume": 12429452, "typical_volume": 36790686.35, "trend": 27.177595, "fair_value": 23.823641, "relative_strength": -20.219176, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.591706, "energy": 56.59528, "activity_lines": [ 23.973964, 24.936134, 26.374152, 26.96116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }