{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3967c258-064d-4989-b924-c1e1d0432bbf", "symbol": "CIV", "name": "Caisse r\u00e9gionale de Cr\u00e9dit Agricole Mutuel d'Ille-et-Vilaine Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 coop\u00e9rative", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.028, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -9.501, "architecture_energy": 26.238, "architecture_maturity": 40.963, "architecture_confidence": 81.884, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.33, "rotation_up": 14.33, "upward_expansion": 43.59, "deceleration": 80.4, "rotation_down": 50.16, "downward_expansion": 39.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.928001, 116.893455, 120.218237, 117.411871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 112.0, "trend_reference": 113.772963, "distance_from_trend": -0.015583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.41876, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.757298, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031918, "excess_performance": -0.021393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446678, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258556, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031918, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.470599, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2447, "relative_activity": 0.605671, "balance": 0.470599, "dry_up": 0.94718, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060163, "annualized_volatility": 0.287413, "from_high_reference": -0.193664, "from_low_reference": 0.284139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.772963, "fair_value_reference": 77.41876, "structural_low": 93.467276, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.015781, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.030183, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.136738, "worst_return": -0.081308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025042, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.071328, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.237936, "worst_return": -0.080645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.161726, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.188352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.640052, "worst_return": -0.076032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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32.463916, "activity_lines": [ 125.388, 127.545645, 121.618167, 117.091625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 111.800003, "volume": 2754, "typical_volume": 4659.4, "trend": 112.116984, "fair_value": 75.889188, "relative_strength": 1.623152, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.291864, "energy": 26.576251, "activity_lines": [ 119.498667, 124.755943, 121.279002, 117.105827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.099998, "volume": 6163, "typical_volume": 4664.8, "trend": 112.510059, "fair_value": 76.258141, "relative_strength": 0.622503, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.319583, "energy": 30.298233, "activity_lines": [ 115.106666, 122.018545, 120.829813, 117.040214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.0, "volume": 2953, "typical_volume": 4449.05, "trend": 113.116673, "fair_value": 76.657993, "relative_strength": 5.135021, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.200485, "energy": 29.33383, "activity_lines": [ 114.466667, 120.546182, 120.907513, 117.329888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 115.980003, "volume": 3744, "typical_volume": 4344.45, "trend": 113.592594, "fair_value": 77.052517, "relative_strength": 2.274952, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.873117, "energy": 26.85474, "activity_lines": [ 114.586668, 118.961091, 120.792141, 117.514619 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.0, "volume": 2447, "typical_volume": 4040.15, "trend": 113.772963, "fair_value": 77.41876, "relative_strength": -3.757298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.501389, "energy": 26.237598, "activity_lines": [ 113.928001, 116.893455, 120.218237, 117.411871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }