{ "ticker": { "uuid": "397281eb-99d2-4de4-ad69-339c7ccdaf60", "symbol": "001914", "name": "China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.009, "architecture_energy": 34.96, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.611, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.81, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 17.58, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 35.07, "downward_expansion": 65.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.726267, 8.649757, 9.043286, 9.406653 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.71, "trend_reference": 9.961412, "distance_from_trend": -0.125626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.046162, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.989909, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.260611, "excess_performance": -0.268011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211491, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130164, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034249, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260611, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839301, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42066020, "relative_activity": 1.331512, "balance": 0.839301, "dry_up": 1.362704, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066988, "annualized_volatility": 0.291659, "from_high_reference": -0.347056, "from_low_reference": 0.083261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.961412, "fair_value_reference": 11.046162, "structural_low": 8.040534, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.015411, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.011284, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.387671, "worst_return": -0.207707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033964, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.011843, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.303458, "worst_return": -0.183745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008907, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009524, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.239597, "worst_return": -0.146773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 8.374131, 8.738613, 9.249558, 9.661034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.6, "volume": 44896622, "typical_volume": 33615002.2, "trend": 10.090412, "fair_value": 11.118231, "relative_strength": -21.759329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.817498, "energy": 61.857838, "activity_lines": [ 8.441308, 8.655115, 9.153975, 9.559394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.04, "volume": 36623519, "typical_volume": 33055495.85, "trend": 10.027078, "fair_value": 11.084847, "relative_strength": -15.710999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.344667, "energy": 47.957924, "activity_lines": [ 8.670484, 8.676164, 9.11025, 9.491626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.71, "volume": 42066020, "typical_volume": 31592660.25, "trend": 9.961412, "fair_value": 11.046162, "relative_strength": -21.989909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.009446, "energy": 34.960287, "activity_lines": [ 8.726267, 8.649757, 9.043286, 9.406653 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }