{ "ticker": { "uuid": "397722e3-d22c-443c-ab2e-b4cb4722e95e", "symbol": "1109", "name": "Hsing Ta Cement Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.763, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.305, "architecture_energy": 46.557, "architecture_maturity": 32.291, "architecture_confidence": 92.777, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.52, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 7.47, "deceleration": 45.98, "rotation_down": 48.27, "downward_expansion": 76.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.636667, 13.697791, 13.808299, 13.952343 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.55, "trend_reference": 14.140455, "distance_from_trend": -0.041756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.177067, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.591682, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062538, "excess_performance": -0.50391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107206, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032248, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023303, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 484731, "relative_activity": 0.621945, "balance": 1.023303, "dry_up": 0.764557, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023098, "annualized_volatility": 0.090228, "from_high_reference": -0.108833, "from_low_reference": 0.009574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.140455, "fair_value_reference": 15.177067, "structural_low": 13.421502, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.006349, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.022354, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.105114, "worst_return": -0.106628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.015829, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.116246, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.102273, "worst_return": -0.119444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.021077, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.042937, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.164038, "worst_return": -0.142554, "sufficient": true 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048781, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", 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29.410462, "activity_lines": [ 13.792514, 13.785191, 13.928451, 14.065567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.8, "volume": 709919, "typical_volume": 817464.55, "trend": 14.203948, "fair_value": 15.188474, "relative_strength": -30.174024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.397272, "energy": 26.046937, "activity_lines": [ 13.799386, 13.789904, 13.902569, 14.037797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.5, "volume": 597757, "typical_volume": 799173.45, "trend": 14.170586, "fair_value": 15.182744, "relative_strength": -32.426365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.957584, "energy": 38.690829, "activity_lines": [ 13.699795, 13.737456, 13.851005, 13.992381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.55, "volume": 484731, "typical_volume": 779378.7, "trend": 14.140455, "fair_value": 15.177067, "relative_strength": -33.591682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.304854, "energy": 46.557206, "activity_lines": [ 13.636667, 13.697791, 13.808299, 13.952343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }