{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3987ae5c-3402-4ea9-a272-adfe75f13aff", "symbol": "URTH", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI WORLD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.954, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.518, "architecture_energy": 59.152, "architecture_maturity": 41.992, "architecture_confidence": 83.956, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 59.52, "upward_expansion": 82.28, "deceleration": 54.91, "rotation_down": 22.98, "downward_expansion": 8.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 205.126667, 203.546938, 201.352434, 197.776773 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 210.47, "trend_reference": 193.81641, "distance_from_trend": 0.085925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 157.913019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332822, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.047284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113644, "excess_performance": -0.011981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085925, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034283, "read": "Rising" 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173.097131, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.014487, "positive_rate": 0.674419, "directional_follow_through": 0.674419, "median_excess_return": -0.001238, "regime_survival": 0.790698, "best_return": 0.068604, "worst_return": -0.116658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.040419, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005553, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.108422, "worst_return": -0.104562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.099402, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.014497, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.113644, "worst_return": -0.172483, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 201.903333, 201.615491, 199.154732, 195.951687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 203.37, "volume": 2320631, "typical_volume": 4418397.5, "trend": 193.076972, "fair_value": 157.328651, "relative_strength": -0.023057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.255889, "energy": 45.026758, "activity_lines": [ 202.532, 201.955382, 199.969803, 196.654642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 210.47, "volume": 3073067, "typical_volume": 4479607.45, "trend": 193.81641, "fair_value": 157.913019, "relative_strength": -0.047284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.518251, "energy": 59.151803, "activity_lines": [ 205.126667, 203.546938, 201.352434, 197.776773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }