{ "ticker": { "uuid": "398a8722-1712-4104-8f63-97aca05b6c99", "symbol": "GUG", "name": "Guggenheim Active Allocation Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.057, "architecture_energy": 7.828, "architecture_maturity": 14.366, "architecture_confidence": 68.746, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.04, "rotation_up": 28.37, "upward_expansion": 51.1, "deceleration": 76.66, "rotation_down": 31.95, "downward_expansion": 29.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.596972, 15.6815, 15.689242, 15.590439 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.49, "trend_reference": 15.477508, "distance_from_trend": 0.000807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.447646, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151874, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.828035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005432, "excess_performance": -0.131056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151874, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.598257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 403579, "relative_activity": 1.051584, "balance": 1.598257, "dry_up": 1.229719, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031687, "annualized_volatility": 0.162199, "from_high_reference": -0.058931, "from_low_reference": 0.093598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.477508, "fair_value_reference": 13.447646, "structural_low": 14.372976, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.031168, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.008966, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.062387, "worst_return": -0.043276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0434, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08809, "worst_return": -0.006146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.088462, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021285, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.126929, "worst_return": 0.019271, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.168558, "energy": 52.912658, "activity_lines": [ 15.961095, 15.873443, 15.713585, 15.587916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.4, "volume": 550170, "typical_volume": 379589.65, "trend": 15.43148, "fair_value": 13.388274, "relative_strength": -5.533366, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.399168, "energy": 23.416051, "activity_lines": [ 15.811119, 15.796732, 15.702222, 15.587178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.45, "volume": 413073, "typical_volume": 384870.9, "trend": 15.45797, "fair_value": 13.417832, "relative_strength": -6.084749, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.919587, "energy": 13.026819, "activity_lines": [ 15.688878, 15.731555, 15.694962, 15.588372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.49, "volume": 403579, "typical_volume": 383782.1, "trend": 15.477508, "fair_value": 13.447646, "relative_strength": -8.828035, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.056595, "energy": 7.828273, "activity_lines": [ 15.596972, 15.6815, 15.689242, 15.590439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }