{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39906c76-0629-480a-a624-474e0ae17542", "symbol": "HRL-F67", "name": "Harel Index Funds Ltd. - Harel Sal (4A) NIKKEI 225 Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.799, "architecture_energy": 67.272, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.632, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.83, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.94, "rotation_down": 55.98, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.622, 71.16, 1761.882381, 2863.504946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 70.63, "trend_reference": 4079.535, "distance_from_trend": -0.982687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4019.833654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98243, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.586144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.987812, "excess_performance": -1.016712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300731, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98243, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.602687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.985861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.003448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.987812, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68863, "relative_activity": 1.294142, "balance": 0.584235, "dry_up": 1.865652, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.960749, "annualized_volatility": 6.38754, "from_high_reference": -0.990131, "from_low_reference": 0.079639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4079.535, "fair_value_reference": 4019.833654, "structural_low": 65.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001795, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012064, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.102557, "worst_return": -0.108888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068256, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.025231, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.173864, "worst_return": -0.073502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034927, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.022692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.460511, "worst_return": -0.042569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -68.572944, "energy": 68.681248, "activity_lines": [ 71.062, 443.947818, 2436.934429, 3415.673828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.11, "volume": 116130, "typical_volume": 55118.1, "trend": 4261.147333, "fair_value": 4039.861667, "relative_strength": -98.661111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.358613, "energy": 68.16267, "activity_lines": [ 69.704, 199.398545, 2085.891048, 3133.860903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.63, "volume": 68863, "typical_volume": 53211.3, "trend": 4079.535, "fair_value": 4019.833654, "relative_strength": -98.586144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.799463, "energy": 67.272183, "activity_lines": [ 69.622, 71.16, 1761.882381, 2863.504946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }