{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39a4cae8-4724-42d6-aa0d-e05ff3f1452f", "symbol": "600704", "name": "Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.813, "architecture_energy": 23.3, "architecture_maturity": 96.385, "architecture_confidence": 60.89, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.11, "rotation_up": 36.69, "upward_expansion": 21.23, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 18.4, "downward_expansion": 52.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.940667, 4.853202, 4.881808, 4.99948 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.97, "trend_reference": 5.189618, "distance_from_trend": -0.042319, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.764306, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.915423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150427, "excess_performance": -0.107224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042319, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061172, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150427, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.27587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188466888, "relative_activity": 1.007788, "balance": 1.27587, "dry_up": 1.154942, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041223, "annualized_volatility": 0.191694, "from_high_reference": -0.215181, "from_low_reference": 0.088795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.189618, "fair_value_reference": 4.764306, "structural_low": 4.564681, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013245, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.012568, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.175182, "worst_return": -0.102397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036957, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014529, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.253041, "worst_return": -0.129032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034569, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03741, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.240876, "worst_return": -0.222734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007648, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.145647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043403, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.748258, "energy": 41.646763, "activity_lines": [ 4.772542, 4.758076, 4.893085, 5.050274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.87, "volume": 242924796, "typical_volume": 201326133.95, "trend": 5.221423, "fair_value": 4.75643, "relative_strength": -6.406077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.828259, "energy": 28.865381, "activity_lines": [ 4.819465, 4.772634, 4.877421, 5.026444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.04, "volume": 220777544, "typical_volume": 194285948.75, "trend": 5.206523, "fair_value": 4.760737, "relative_strength": -3.277001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.812927, "energy": 23.398145, "activity_lines": [ 4.9053, 4.820463, 4.881567, 5.014739 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.97, "volume": 188466888, "typical_volume": 187010396.45, "trend": 5.189618, "fair_value": 4.764306, "relative_strength": -6.915423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.812988, "energy": 23.300479, "activity_lines": [ 4.940667, 4.853202, 4.881808, 4.99948 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }