{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39a8dc64-17ad-45c7-b64b-32b7eb527e7c", "symbol": "TMX", "name": "Terrain Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.704, "architecture_energy": 77.109, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 17.73, "upward_expansion": 18.06, "deceleration": 37.89, "rotation_down": 68.03, "downward_expansion": 93.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0027, 0.002909, 0.003414, 0.003775 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.004167, "distance_from_trend": -0.4, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.00392, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.362224, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.350053, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375, "excess_performance": -0.438706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080882, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.362224, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316352, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.413501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.46062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.080056, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15248383, "relative_activity": 1.159863, "balance": 0.080056, "dry_up": 0.835663, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.246154, "annualized_volatility": 0.757106, "from_high_reference": -0.642857, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.004167, "fair_value_reference": 0.00392, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.27027, "directional_follow_through": 0.432432, "median_excess_return": -0.012945, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.714286, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.02186, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.09127, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.126864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"fair_value": 0.003997, "relative_strength": -25.875319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.676535, "energy": 70.626135, "activity_lines": [ 0.003133, 0.003464, 0.003938, 0.004175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 5656696, "typical_volume": 15627575.8, "trend": 0.004317, "fair_value": 0.003978, "relative_strength": -25.969052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.75025, "energy": 71.164097, "activity_lines": [ 0.003033, 0.003336, 0.003814, 0.004087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 14291674, "typical_volume": 14095064.4, "trend": 0.004283, "fair_value": 0.003958, "relative_strength": -25.750242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.219517, "energy": 72.982273, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003227, 0.003702, 0.004002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 8748152, "typical_volume": 12881367.35, "trend": 0.004233, "fair_value": 0.003942, "relative_strength": -39.654706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.280111, "energy": 75.906415, "activity_lines": [ 0.002833, 0.003055, 0.003552, 0.003887 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 15248383, "typical_volume": 13146711.25, "trend": 0.004167, "fair_value": 0.00392, "relative_strength": -41.350053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.704011, "energy": 77.108646, "activity_lines": [ 0.0027, 0.002909, 0.003414, 0.003775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }