{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39afc2bf-a3f6-45fa-b616-da23fe446ef3", "symbol": "4527", "name": "Kuen Ling Machinery Refrigerating Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.792, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.453, "architecture_energy": 9.122, "architecture_maturity": 25.044, "architecture_confidence": 43.566, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.17, "rotation_up": 31.72, "upward_expansion": 30.86, "deceleration": 53.98, "rotation_down": 36.13, "downward_expansion": 25.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.936666, 39.748181, 40.149816, 40.070537 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.25, "trend_reference": 39.780667, "distance_from_trend": 0.036936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.000585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.408145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073753, "excess_performance": -0.367619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026613, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08551, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066655, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073753, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884017, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126398, "relative_activity": 0.656931, "balance": 0.884017, "dry_up": 0.516394, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034792, "annualized_volatility": 0.132213, "from_high_reference": -0.042706, "from_low_reference": 0.18156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.780667, "fair_value_reference": 38.000585, "structural_low": 37.715612, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0698, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070797, "worst_return": 0.040153, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095133, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028294, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107075, "worst_return": 0.062048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0698, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233269, "worst_return": 0.051893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048755, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059146, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079738, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049102, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040151, "active": 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207705.25, "trend": 39.45441, "fair_value": 37.763048, "relative_strength": -26.477945, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.444806, "energy": 28.933171, "activity_lines": [ 39.26, 39.901524, 40.222632, 39.992032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.0, "volume": 118020, "typical_volume": 198202.4, "trend": 39.539285, "fair_value": 37.833657, "relative_strength": -24.923047, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.559853, "energy": 37.525385, "activity_lines": [ 39.15, 39.632727, 40.106792, 39.962715 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.599998, "volume": 109013, "typical_volume": 193412.55, "trend": 39.639486, "fair_value": 37.911035, "relative_strength": -24.728109, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.101556, "energy": 24.159808, "activity_lines": [ 39.259999, 39.509999, 40.049768, 39.966632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.25, "volume": 126398, "typical_volume": 192406.95, "trend": 39.780667, "fair_value": 38.000585, "relative_strength": -23.408145, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.452918, "energy": 9.122315, "activity_lines": [ 39.936666, 39.748181, 40.149816, 40.070537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }