{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "39b0f02b-c767-42f4-9edd-84f62b6783c6",
    "symbol": "FORD",
    "name": "Ford Motor Company",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 54.716,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.308,
    "architecture_energy": 26.927,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.916,
    "architecture_confidence": 48.142,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.99,
        "rotation_up": 36.59,
        "upward_expansion": 67.06,
        "deceleration": 71.46,
        "rotation_down": 24.53,
        "downward_expansion": 7.39
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        12.434667,
        12.399909,
        12.233682,
        11.861545
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 12.14,
    "trend_reference": 11.530621,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.052849,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 9.7503,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24509,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.308389,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.074238,
    "excess_performance": -0.100008,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052849,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038524,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.24509,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.172354,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.103084,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040616,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.074238,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.340258,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 1.340258,
      "dry_up": 1.879713,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.088962,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.471481,
      "from_high_reference": -0.181665,
      "from_low_reference": 0.319457
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.530621,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.7503,
      "structural_low": 9.679487,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.025333,
        "positive_rate": 0.416667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.416667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014184,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.210921,
        "worst_return": -0.210056,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.146997,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039235,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.224839,
        "worst_return": -0.186369,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.006091,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016665,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.600245,
        "worst_return": -0.204737,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.109991,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.279282,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.086442,
        "worst_return": -0.311401,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.066497,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.049968,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025394,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.050379,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00995,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.100464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.033756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.103961,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.205595,
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        "active": true
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        "relative_strength": -11.574023,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.059433,
        "energy": 28.881973,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 9.988962,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 689.35,
        "trend": 10.835843,
        "fair_value": 9.556397,
        "relative_strength": -15.551905,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.645125,
        "energy": 28.326262,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.292787,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 10.259999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 689.35,
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        "fair_value": 9.564326,
        "relative_strength": -14.369997,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 23.146994,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 11.62,
        "volume": 340,
        "typical_volume": 657.35,
        "trend": 10.926835,
        "fair_value": 9.581379,
        "relative_strength": -2.565653,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -5.630622,
        "energy": 9.482154,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.717604,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 1953,
        "typical_volume": 755.0,
        "trend": 10.970474,
        "fair_value": 9.602061,
        "relative_strength": 3.471238,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.706567,
        "energy": 34.67133,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 596.1,
        "trend": 11.102895,
        "fair_value": 9.634951,
        "relative_strength": 17.880626,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 90.894252,
        "energy": 87.94218,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.666931,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 12.94,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 550.5,
        "trend": 11.165828,
        "fair_value": 9.649425,
        "relative_strength": 3.717648,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.202999,
        "energy": 82.17598,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 12.765,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 545.8,
        "trend": 11.222279,
        "fair_value": 9.660882,
        "relative_strength": -0.607612,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 501.55,
        "trend": 11.268207,
        "fair_value": 9.670131,
        "relative_strength": -8.995317,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 63.369158,
        "energy": 76.771219,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 12.57,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 462.5,
        "trend": 11.315175,
        "fair_value": 9.676433,
        "relative_strength": -4.24322,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.24429,
        "energy": 44.383847,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.704,
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          11.499626
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 11.785,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 462.5,
        "trend": 11.339089,
        "fair_value": 9.678078,
        "relative_strength": -12.116095,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.1996,
        "energy": 25.438982,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.28,
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          11.529937
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 12.29,
        "volume": 3270,
        "typical_volume": 494.45,
        "trend": 11.367905,
        "fair_value": 9.685249,
        "relative_strength": -7.006792,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.202071,
        "energy": 21.458414,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.227667,
          12.485909,
          11.845441,
          11.591286
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 12.505,
        "volume": 50,
        "typical_volume": 496.95,
        "trend": 11.413484,
        "fair_value": 9.698368,
        "relative_strength": -3.559094,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.799798,
        "energy": 21.859223,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.290333,
          12.507636,
          11.95454,
          11.664647
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.76,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 452.7,
        "trend": 11.471649,
        "fair_value": 9.715438,
        "relative_strength": -2.970236,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.29909,
        "energy": 25.67724,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.455333,
          12.534909,
          12.085194,
          11.751519
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 12.56,
        "volume": 4188,
        "typical_volume": 563.65,
        "trend": 11.522953,
        "fair_value": 9.732158,
        "relative_strength": -4.489951,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.245379,
        "energy": 31.283074,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.514667,
          12.505091,
          12.185271,
          11.821735
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.14,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 563.65,
        "trend": 11.530621,
        "fair_value": 9.7503,
        "relative_strength": -10.308389,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.308185,
        "energy": 26.927151,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.434667,
          12.399909,
          12.233682,
          11.861545
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}