{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39b2993a-d86d-45cc-8ccf-69ea6bf69358", "symbol": "NDX1", "name": "Nordex SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.589, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.399, "architecture_energy": 48.063, "architecture_maturity": 4.918, "architecture_confidence": 65.008, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.97, "rotation_up": 19.91, "upward_expansion": 20.16, "deceleration": 41.96, "rotation_down": 62.93, "downward_expansion": 57.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.694666, 41.139636, 42.34, 42.439613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.759998, "trend_reference": 41.265333, "distance_from_trend": -0.036479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.207891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.967548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.424638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.212195, "excess_performance": 0.037948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125357, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.967548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.673455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034246, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.456555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.212195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.101209, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1289, "relative_activity": 1.005303, "balance": 0.101209, "dry_up": 1.733154, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087641, "annualized_volatility": 0.531985, "from_high_reference": -0.213452, "from_low_reference": 1.053719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.265333, "fair_value_reference": 20.207891, "structural_low": 31.42, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.014881, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016446, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.04878, "worst_return": -0.078543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.163369, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.176902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163369, "worst_return": 0.163369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.069489, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.069489, "worst_return": -0.069489, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.269939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111446, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.157941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.29028, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148997, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.78144, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.755, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 41.3, "trend": 12.319, "fair_value": 13.629676, "relative_strength": -6.846056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 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45.599318, "energy": 32.286579, "activity_lines": [ 44.630667, 43.901092, 44.214286, 42.57114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.099998, "volume": 394, "typical_volume": 1249.2, "trend": 39.976, "fair_value": 19.510199, "relative_strength": 4.283972, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.737578, "energy": 21.19161, "activity_lines": [ 43.770667, 43.334546, 43.963334, 42.669807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.580002, "volume": 675, "typical_volume": 1016.25, "trend": 40.333334, "fair_value": 19.682603, "relative_strength": 1.750911, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.385704, "energy": 6.911662, "activity_lines": [ 42.372001, 42.62291, 43.532953, 42.644258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.119999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 967.35, "trend": 40.704667, "fair_value": 19.858756, "relative_strength": 1.142242, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.295075, "energy": 13.287262, "activity_lines": [ 41.192, 42.138546, 43.171238, 42.630495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.0, "volume": 6925, "typical_volume": 1218.5, "trend": 41.014, "fair_value": 20.029141, "relative_strength": -2.083407, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.831854, "energy": 37.781891, "activity_lines": [ 40.153333, 41.533818, 42.707524, 42.520516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.759998, "volume": 1289, "typical_volume": 1282.2, "trend": 41.265333, "fair_value": 20.207891, "relative_strength": -3.424638, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.39859, "energy": 48.063372, "activity_lines": [ 39.694666, 41.139636, 42.34, 42.439613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }