{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39b2fc3c-d771-46e8-9e4c-e17dc5963155", "symbol": "300569", "name": "Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.461, "architecture_energy": 56.018, "architecture_maturity": 64.926, "architecture_confidence": 95.678, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 28.96, "upward_expansion": 10.65, "deceleration": 58.56, "rotation_down": 47.2, "downward_expansion": 81.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.784, 4.790182, 5.133117, 5.500032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 5.866726, "distance_from_trend": -0.166486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.553568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119485, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.596731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199688, "excess_performance": -0.207088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119485, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.112352, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80304303, "relative_activity": 0.674938, "balance": 0.112352, "dry_up": 0.643235, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075004, "annualized_volatility": 0.424301, "from_high_reference": -0.451853, "from_low_reference": 0.111364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.866726, "fair_value_reference": 5.553568, "structural_low": 4.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004387, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.001145, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.392869, "worst_return": -0.178571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045218, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035792, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.518508, "worst_return": -0.369418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070587, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.112536, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.233867, "worst_return": -0.413098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.634464, "relative_strength": -29.865798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.512157, "energy": 87.103718, "activity_lines": [ 4.802, 5.000635, 5.549494, 5.807537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.64, "volume": 68733740, "typical_volume": 182559698.55, "trend": 5.963186, "fair_value": 5.611369, "relative_strength": -22.896448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.366369, "energy": 83.045462, "activity_lines": [ 4.743333, 4.888244, 5.41958, 5.719608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.6, "volume": 91553151, "typical_volume": 178999043.85, "trend": 5.925807, "fair_value": 5.590215, "relative_strength": -23.365516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.637115, "energy": 80.000626, "activity_lines": [ 4.686667, 4.798754, 5.294804, 5.631661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.89, "volume": 65537927, "typical_volume": 160563779.35, "trend": 5.894439, "fair_value": 5.571107, "relative_strength": -16.866413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.651617, "energy": 62.673138, "activity_lines": [ 4.740667, 4.787091, 5.207115, 5.564835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 80304303, "typical_volume": 118980305.6, "trend": 5.866726, "fair_value": 5.553568, "relative_strength": -20.596731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.460888, "energy": 56.018491, "activity_lines": [ 4.784, 4.790182, 5.133117, 5.500032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }