{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39b315c7-2b6e-45e9-8d44-30d9511ab834", "symbol": "PICK", "name": "iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.047, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.352, "architecture_energy": 83.527, "architecture_maturity": 13.09, "architecture_confidence": 71.29, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.07, "rotation_up": 10.68, "upward_expansion": 22.87, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 74.24, "downward_expansion": 91.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1010.2, 1036.854843, 1055.613443, 1058.071268 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1018.0, "trend_reference": 1058.894922, "distance_from_trend": -0.03862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 821.415406, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.913048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057407, "excess_performance": -0.002741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058396, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05913, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.279493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.279493, "dry_up": 0.278221, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024229, "annualized_volatility": 0.271856, "from_high_reference": -0.099912, "from_low_reference": 0.51837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1058.894922, "fair_value_reference": 821.415406, "structural_low": 979.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.039837, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033181, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.039837, "worst_return": 0.039837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128585, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057123, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039837, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 699.21167, "volume": 0, 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"energy": 44.973611, "activity_lines": [ 1022.4, 1053.961679, 1063.802278, 1062.548032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1018.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 594.85, "trend": 1054.761589, "fair_value": 819.675719, "relative_strength": 6.437727, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.640555, "energy": 51.832131, "activity_lines": [ 1012.533333, 1045.018777, 1059.584051, 1060.442983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1018.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 594.85, "trend": 1058.894922, "fair_value": 821.415406, "relative_strength": 5.913048, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.352487, "energy": 83.526744, "activity_lines": [ 1010.2, 1036.854843, 1055.613443, 1058.071268 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }