{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39b4dbe5-a00c-461f-a3fe-6331bf753523", "symbol": "ARTW", "name": "Arts-Way Manufacturing Co Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.564, "architecture_energy": 60.209, "architecture_maturity": 12.2, "architecture_confidence": 83.324, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.51, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 30.21, "deceleration": 46.32, "rotation_down": 72.41, "downward_expansion": 57.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.214, 2.350182, 2.463857, 2.457634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.195, "trend_reference": 2.445667, "distance_from_trend": -0.102494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.137441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.440134, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077731, "excess_performance": -0.265185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026929, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077731, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.407331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70154, "relative_activity": 0.558941, "balance": 0.407331, "dry_up": 1.494746, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099022, "annualized_volatility": 0.460046, "from_high_reference": -0.53397, "from_low_reference": 0.070732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.445667, "fair_value_reference": 2.137441, "structural_low": 2.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028623, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006769, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.214912, "worst_return": -0.03854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017316, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.099577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024461, "worst_return": -0.057018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.147186, "worst_return": -0.105263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0671, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072072, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 146639.55, "trend": 2.4615, "fair_value": 2.149314, "relative_strength": -18.108495, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.062929, "energy": 13.71797, "activity_lines": [ 2.593667, 2.600364, 2.576333, 2.523914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.26, "volume": 73309, "typical_volume": 147461.0, "trend": 2.462833, "fair_value": 2.147071, "relative_strength": -22.444569, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.687051, "energy": 9.936257, "activity_lines": [ 2.478667, 2.538455, 2.553214, 2.510914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.19, "volume": 70474, "typical_volume": 145719.3, "trend": 2.4565, "fair_value": 2.144076, "relative_strength": -22.853474, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.464828, "energy": 40.711047, "activity_lines": [ 2.365667, 2.468909, 2.523905, 2.493312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.16, "volume": 536499, "typical_volume": 131420.85, "trend": 2.4515, "fair_value": 2.140999, "relative_strength": -23.270817, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.383196, "energy": 55.493393, "activity_lines": [ 2.269333, 2.402273, 2.492024, 2.474183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.195, "volume": 70154, "typical_volume": 125512.3, "trend": 2.445667, "fair_value": 2.137441, "relative_strength": -24.440134, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.563852, "energy": 60.208867, "activity_lines": [ 2.214, 2.350182, 2.463857, 2.457634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }