{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39b71498-d342-4f22-b4c2-aa5f7b7f936e", "symbol": "IDR", "name": "Indra Sistemas, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.604, "architecture_energy": 52.702, "architecture_maturity": 53.142, "architecture_confidence": 79.084, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.41, "rotation_up": 66.04, "upward_expansion": 53.33, "deceleration": 29.94, "rotation_down": 24.76, "downward_expansion": 23.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.588667, 54.020935, 53.060296, 52.890006 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 63.16, "trend_reference": 53.108036, "distance_from_trend": 0.189274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.545494, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.13772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.232225, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.285831, "excess_performance": 0.1614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.189274, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.13772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201798, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.112322, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083996, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.364043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5463411, "relative_activity": 1.116917, "balance": 2.364043, "dry_up": 1.193146, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07407, "annualized_volatility": 0.595905, "from_high_reference": -0.0452, "from_low_reference": 0.950587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.108036, "fair_value_reference": 29.545494, "structural_low": 43.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.062152, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.016832, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.532268, "worst_return": -0.179835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.145675, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.104867, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.576763, "worst_return": -0.260023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.242502, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.209137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.079431, "worst_return": -0.105983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.427473, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.369282, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.834772, "worst_return": 0.243658, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028197, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108527, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.642761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.007664, "energy": 39.863872, "activity_lines": [ 49.799353, 51.570648, 51.58384, 52.134811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.990002, "volume": 4050081, "typical_volume": 4983975.95, "trend": 52.518036, "fair_value": 28.686053, "relative_strength": -8.628069, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.278845, "energy": 45.530301, "activity_lines": [ 49.08209, 51.014629, 51.256311, 51.908551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.360001, "volume": 6441090, "typical_volume": 4978365.4, "trend": 52.713369, "fair_value": 28.943276, "relative_strength": -2.436441, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.995181, "energy": 37.811132, "activity_lines": [ 50.270071, 51.28061, 51.410497, 51.962871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.880001, "volume": 7390553, "typical_volume": 5133341.7, "trend": 52.956036, "fair_value": 29.224068, "relative_strength": 2.721049, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.293926, "energy": 2.497116, "activity_lines": [ 52.723671, 52.118045, 51.931301, 52.231686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.16, "volume": 5463411, "typical_volume": 4891510.5, "trend": 53.108036, "fair_value": 29.545494, "relative_strength": 11.232225, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.604254, "energy": 52.702156, "activity_lines": [ 56.588667, 54.020935, 53.060296, 52.890006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }