{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39ba8674-b430-4dd7-bc26-fa4e4229b682", "symbol": "TLRY", "name": "Tilray Brands, Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.258, "architecture_energy": 77.206, "architecture_maturity": 53.582, "architecture_confidence": 93.135, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 18.49, "deceleration": 39.89, "rotation_down": 55.38, "downward_expansion": 91.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.132, 6.258545, 6.799143, 7.437785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.36, "trend_reference": 8.457667, "distance_from_trend": -0.24802, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.718654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.710296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.653362, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.386692, "excess_performance": -0.507114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085493, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.710296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.550831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.483928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.386692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2294800, "relative_activity": 0.976288, "balance": 0.927548, "dry_up": 1.051027, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08799, "annualized_volatility": 0.405645, "from_high_reference": -0.705146, "from_low_reference": 5.424242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.457667, "fair_value_reference": 3.718654, "structural_low": 5.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.057608, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.072223, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.740741, "worst_return": -0.346626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.128205, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.163252, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.981481, "worst_return": -0.534314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021186, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.104416, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.817204, "worst_return": -0.599138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.594828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.3625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.516616, "energy": 72.284051, "activity_lines": [ 6.308667, 6.584909, 7.264476, 7.990559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.49, "volume": 1999300, "typical_volume": 2279265.0, "trend": 8.904333, "fair_value": 3.679615, "relative_strength": -24.891806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.08618, "energy": 93.157766, "activity_lines": [ 5.998667, 6.344182, 7.036, 7.752301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.34, "volume": 3459100, "typical_volume": 2345395.0, "trend": 8.670667, "fair_value": 3.700385, "relative_strength": -14.11273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.227973, "energy": 82.179012, "activity_lines": [ 6.054667, 6.290545, 6.909143, 7.58686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.36, "volume": 2294800, "typical_volume": 2350535.0, "trend": 8.457667, "fair_value": 3.718654, "relative_strength": -17.653362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.257649, "energy": 77.206442, "activity_lines": [ 6.132, 6.258545, 6.799143, 7.437785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }