{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39baa237-fe42-4cc0-a08e-66233e71b3fe", "symbol": "INSECTICID", "name": "Insecticides (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.909, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.245, "architecture_energy": 48.697, "architecture_maturity": 4.653, "architecture_confidence": 68.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.64, "rotation_up": 14.89, "upward_expansion": 25.33, "deceleration": 50.47, "rotation_down": 63.93, "downward_expansion": 52.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 641.160006, 652.316363, 674.897618, 666.585413 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 647.700012, "trend_reference": 653.029604, "distance_from_trend": -0.008161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 682.975745, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.406348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077614, "excess_performance": 0.121323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015949, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05165, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137999, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054063, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.315672, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107058, "relative_activity": 0.88658, "balance": 1.315672, "dry_up": 0.891325, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051959, "annualized_volatility": 0.294302, "from_high_reference": -0.386234, "from_low_reference": 0.24894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 653.029604, "fair_value_reference": 682.975745, "structural_low": 518.599976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051664, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036032, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.180692, "worst_return": -0.203577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.064126, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.110962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268018, "worst_return": -0.197084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109013, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.095833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.955159, "worst_return": -0.274769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063066, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109527, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029586, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062508, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096584, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": 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667.878089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 641.200012, "volume": 113437, "typical_volume": 127312.55, "trend": 653.355015, "fair_value": 681.790209, "relative_strength": -6.508079, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.028371, "energy": 50.982149, "activity_lines": [ 640.846667, 657.280905, 677.26595, 666.950252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 647.700012, "volume": 107058, "typical_volume": 120753.95, "trend": 653.029604, "fair_value": 682.975745, "relative_strength": -5.406348, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.245118, "energy": 48.696853, "activity_lines": [ 641.160006, 652.316363, 674.897618, 666.585413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }