{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39bb8214-82d8-4078-837b-f98d63270fa0", "symbol": "KSM-F122", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) STOXX Europe 600", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.211, "architecture_energy": 66.868, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.48, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.71, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 47.71, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 547.14, 1444.347273, 16204.105238, 25629.559355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 551.2, "trend_reference": 36423.676667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45691.219872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.859283, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989736, "excess_performance": -1.018636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.038271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.721373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.749435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4464, "relative_activity": 0.70348, "balance": 0.749435, "dry_up": 0.824823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.708873, "annualized_volatility": 6.36438, "from_high_reference": -0.990136, "from_low_reference": 0.078669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36423.676667, "fair_value_reference": 45691.219872, "structural_low": 511.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.000569, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.009135, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.115651, "worst_return": -0.989717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030951, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006499, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.132376, "worst_return": -0.089721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030778, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042391, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135542, "worst_return": -0.07717, "sufficient": false 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45963.583974, "relative_strength": -98.882067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.625647, "energy": 67.533614, "activity_lines": [ 543.606667, 3235.203636, 19063.415238, 28057.071398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 551.2, "volume": 4464, "typical_volume": 6345.6, "trend": 36423.676667, "fair_value": 45691.219872, "relative_strength": -98.859283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.21054, "energy": 66.868088, "activity_lines": [ 547.14, 1444.347273, 16204.105238, 25629.559355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }