{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39bc282a-496f-4c62-b049-40c60b6bc43e", "symbol": "MITCON", "name": "MITCON Consultancy & Engineering Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.153, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.999, "architecture_energy": 14.678, "architecture_maturity": 49.926, "architecture_confidence": 92.659, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.57, "rotation_up": 22.81, "upward_expansion": 47.76, "deceleration": 82.67, "rotation_down": 32.98, "downward_expansion": 28.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.405332, 76.498181, 77.996619, 74.763398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 79.32, "trend_reference": 70.114667, "distance_from_trend": 0.13129, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.986283, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.466972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.331543, "excess_performance": 0.375252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13129, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108627, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.14467, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.331543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.042846, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15217, "relative_activity": 0.428073, "balance": 1.042846, "dry_up": 0.266571, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091751, "annualized_volatility": 0.459632, "from_high_reference": -0.128256, "from_low_reference": 0.600484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.114667, "fair_value_reference": 88.986283, "structural_low": 49.560001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.046642, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.043167, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.597417, "worst_return": -0.11803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.198013, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.11524, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.748182, "worst_return": -0.333178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.370535, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.225378, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.602727, "worst_return": -0.414848, "sufficient": false }, { 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73.875484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.5, "volume": 9218, "typical_volume": 37552.45, "trend": 69.639, "fair_value": 88.977593, "relative_strength": 7.097613, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.198322, "energy": 17.708673, "activity_lines": [ 73.735998, 76.408181, 77.606523, 74.138817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.32, "volume": 15217, "typical_volume": 35547.7, "trend": 70.114667, "fair_value": 88.986283, "relative_strength": 14.466972, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.998976, "energy": 14.678097, "activity_lines": [ 75.405332, 76.498181, 77.996619, 74.763398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }