{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39c1f357-9c34-4115-85c3-25eedd5cd87f", "symbol": "001219", "name": "Qingdao Foods Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.939, "architecture_energy": 40.72, "architecture_maturity": 63.368, "architecture_confidence": 63.595, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.63, "rotation_up": 25.37, "upward_expansion": 17.74, "deceleration": 66.51, "rotation_down": 43.59, "downward_expansion": 67.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.19, 12.182727, 12.812122, 13.242918 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.32, "trend_reference": 13.729867, "distance_from_trend": -0.102686, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.157541, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.231548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144294, "excess_performance": -0.151694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046217, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063655, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273896, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10743274, "relative_activity": 0.757469, "balance": 0.273896, "dry_up": 0.861059, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064805, "annualized_volatility": 0.250453, "from_high_reference": -0.223722, "from_low_reference": 0.068517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.729867, "fair_value_reference": 13.157541, "structural_low": 11.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006464, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.002365, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.097584, "worst_return": -0.126593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.020584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040398, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142606, "worst_return": -0.101437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.026703, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.076494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026703, "worst_return": 0.026703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 12.094, 12.424955, 13.216279, 13.574074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.69, "volume": 11642613, "typical_volume": 14657951.25, "trend": 13.843747, "fair_value": 13.171959, "relative_strength": -16.576405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.264171, "energy": 60.930808, "activity_lines": [ 11.963333, 12.223166, 13.025056, 13.428688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.43, "volume": 14891535, "typical_volume": 14577798.95, "trend": 13.785694, "fair_value": 13.166296, "relative_strength": -9.4805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.760441, "energy": 50.979124, "activity_lines": [ 12.122, 12.202293, 12.918511, 13.337479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.32, "volume": 10743274, "typical_volume": 14183129.15, "trend": 13.729867, "fair_value": 13.157541, "relative_strength": -14.231548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.938722, "energy": 40.72018, "activity_lines": [ 12.19, 12.182727, 12.812122, 13.242918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }