{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39c53b4e-8262-4b5d-ac03-d5ed9fba2749", "symbol": "SARDAEN", "name": "Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 57.833, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.308, "architecture_energy": 29.891, "architecture_maturity": 14.585, "architecture_confidence": 58.372, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.7, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 11.08, "deceleration": 53.39, "rotation_down": 52.57, "downward_expansion": 52.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 504.07333, 507.789089, 524.096191, 528.64043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 497.600006, "trend_reference": 527.849998, "distance_from_trend": -0.057308, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 405.855383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.007308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060334, "excess_performance": -0.016625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057308, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005243, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1972917, "relative_activity": 0.96623, "balance": 0.592441, "dry_up": 0.658185, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066697, "annualized_volatility": 0.320935, "from_high_reference": -0.222196, "from_low_reference": 0.098212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 527.849998, "fair_value_reference": 405.855383, "structural_low": 477.799988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003688, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.144442, "worst_return": -0.0658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038248, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.029655, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173761, "worst_return": 0.037055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.332149, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.137589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.634979, "worst_return": 0.017697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040728, "active": false }, { 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527.188331, "fair_value": 403.866754, "relative_strength": -1.814433, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.666387, "energy": 36.208201, "activity_lines": [ 506.693327, 510.970906, 527.718571, 530.549354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 497.600006, "volume": 1972917, "typical_volume": 2041871.9, "trend": 527.849998, "fair_value": 405.855383, "relative_strength": -6.007308, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.308427, "energy": 29.890749, "activity_lines": [ 504.07333, 507.789089, 524.096191, 528.64043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }