{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39cb28f5-2ae9-4f7d-824f-f8a5a8b5bb96", "symbol": "XMLV", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P MIDCAP LOW VOLATILITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.87, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.075, "architecture_energy": 73.525, "architecture_maturity": 15.944, "architecture_confidence": 70.295, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 72.43, "upward_expansion": 89.9, "deceleration": 45.94, "rotation_down": 10.26, "downward_expansion": 16.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.55284, 67.805245, 66.561075, 65.954333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 68.5458, "trend_reference": 65.325253, "distance_from_trend": 0.0493, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.798331, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.495489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04749, "excess_performance": -0.078135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025217, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031801, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030856, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04749, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.318056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67541, "relative_activity": 0.662419, "balance": 1.318056, "dry_up": 0.985525, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024362, "annualized_volatility": 0.126045, "from_high_reference": -0.023666, "from_low_reference": 0.142305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.325253, "fair_value_reference": 57.798331, "structural_low": 61.83501, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.010422, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.00586, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.068419, "worst_return": -0.096832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.027582, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.02876, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.05539, "worst_return": -0.049368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041568, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.054626, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.092219, "worst_return": -0.034191, "sufficient": true }, { 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-0.70595, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.103667, "energy": 82.256162, "activity_lines": [ 67.438476, 66.388836, 65.55554, 65.224169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.19, "volume": 74742, "typical_volume": 98635.35, "trend": 64.928703, "fair_value": 57.5511, "relative_strength": 0.609752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.031497, "energy": 85.413685, "activity_lines": [ 68.225947, 67.038359, 65.956364, 65.513618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.36, "volume": 160999, "typical_volume": 103702.75, "trend": 65.146014, "fair_value": 57.673285, "relative_strength": -1.565452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.655994, "energy": 77.777092, "activity_lines": [ 68.407427, 67.436625, 66.25933, 65.734992 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.5458, "volume": 67541, "typical_volume": 101961.15, "trend": 65.325253, "fair_value": 57.798331, "relative_strength": -4.495489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.075166, "energy": 73.524935, "activity_lines": [ 68.55284, 67.805245, 66.561075, 65.954333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }