{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39cf0bd5-0914-44ab-b71b-98e21f1a3c16", "symbol": "ARB", "name": "ArborGen Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.253, "architecture_energy": 66.913, "architecture_maturity": 95.488, "architecture_confidence": 89.531, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 25.41, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.18, "rotation_down": 62.68, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0654, 0.067491, 0.074343, 0.080658 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.065, "trend_reference": 0.0905, "distance_from_trend": -0.281768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.136276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.523026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.64124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.46281, "excess_performance": -0.491083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281768, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.523026, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146718, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.46281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.186752, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19083, "relative_activity": 0.062185, "balance": 2.186752, "dry_up": 2.253522, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084024, "annualized_volatility": 0.372961, "from_high_reference": -0.551724, "from_low_reference": 0.048387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0905, "fair_value_reference": 0.136276, "structural_low": 0.062, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.475, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001833, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.141667, "worst_return": -0.195402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009524, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035807, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.084615, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082212, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.086996, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.188679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.089102, "energy": 91.391264, "activity_lines": [ 0.069667, 0.074782, 0.081457, 0.088381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.071, "volume": 2002372, "typical_volume": 290409.5, "trend": 0.096833, "fair_value": 0.138692, "relative_strength": -36.526307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.953505, "energy": 83.556687, "activity_lines": [ 0.0698, 0.073345, 0.079929, 0.086594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.062, "volume": 48797, "typical_volume": 289812.55, "trend": 0.0947, "fair_value": 0.137808, "relative_strength": -44.301685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.068011, "energy": 73.372875, "activity_lines": [ 0.0672, 0.0706, 0.0777, 0.084346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.065, "volume": 695936, "typical_volume": 313640.05, "trend": 0.092467, "fair_value": 0.137013, "relative_strength": -40.678884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.714959, "energy": 67.574007, "activity_lines": [ 0.066133, 0.068836, 0.075938, 0.08243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.065, "volume": 19083, "typical_volume": 306873.8, "trend": 0.0905, "fair_value": 0.136276, "relative_strength": -40.64124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.252995, "energy": 66.913113, "activity_lines": [ 0.0654, 0.067491, 0.074343, 0.080658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }