{ "ticker": { "uuid": "39cfa136-aae9-41a5-8392-887e247dfc64", "symbol": "ZPRI", "name": "State Street SPDR Morningstar Multi-Asset Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.446, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.724, "architecture_energy": 28.611, "architecture_maturity": 66.657, "architecture_confidence": 51.796, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.35, "rotation_up": 42.47, "upward_expansion": 66.69, "deceleration": 62.14, "rotation_down": 24.2, "downward_expansion": 14.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.531667, 33.588455, 33.3845, 33.219411 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.27, "trend_reference": 32.942713, "distance_from_trend": 0.009935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.115964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.080042, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035819, "excess_performance": -0.028821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009935, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10473, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035819, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.250464, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10579, "relative_activity": 0.888503, "balance": 1.250464, "dry_up": 1.261218, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015699, "annualized_volatility": 0.080448, "from_high_reference": -0.027477, "from_low_reference": 0.109711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.942713, "fair_value_reference": 30.115964, "structural_low": 31.917334, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.007445, "positive_rate": 0.69697, "directional_follow_through": 0.69697, "median_excess_return": 0.00142, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.045846, "worst_return": -0.057885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016571, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001378, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.048784, "worst_return": -0.099945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034579, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003925, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.066655, "worst_return": -0.097247, "sufficient": true }, { 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32.710589, "fair_value": 29.991224, "relative_strength": 3.78115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.69981, "energy": 74.068712, "activity_lines": [ 33.743667, 33.544637, 33.266584, 33.077701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.119999, "volume": 13642, "typical_volume": 13405.6, "trend": 32.81508, "fair_value": 30.03414, "relative_strength": 3.203302, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.934047, "energy": 70.351686, "activity_lines": [ 33.891, 33.682091, 33.36527, 33.168631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.215, "volume": 11978, "typical_volume": 12297.7, "trend": 32.882829, "fair_value": 30.074099, "relative_strength": -1.634326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.889744, "energy": 41.27353, "activity_lines": [ 33.679, 33.632273, 33.372608, 33.194432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.27, "volume": 10579, "typical_volume": 11906.55, "trend": 32.942713, "fair_value": 30.115964, "relative_strength": -4.080042, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.724411, "energy": 28.611012, "activity_lines": [ 33.531667, 33.588455, 33.3845, 33.219411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }